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<p>The increasing frequency of droughts as global temperatures rise requires the development of precise and reliable criteria for drought evaluation. This research used three standard drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) to assess drought conditions in five districts of Punjab, Pakistan, from 1991 to 2021. A key innovation of this research is the integration of multiple timescales (3-, 6-, and 12-months) to analyze agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological droughts, providing a more comprehensive drought assessment. The RDI calculation noticed that all districts experienced moderate to extreme droughts, with values ranging from -1.0 to -2.5. Moderate to severe droughts happened in all districts, with critical drought years including 1993, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2018, and 2021 resulting in considerable wheat production decreases of 2.74 tons/ha. Based on 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescale estimations for SPI and SPEI, the research indicated major droughts occurred in 1991, 1993, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2016, 2018, and 2021, which were consistent throughout all five districts of Punjab. The study indicated that the Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan districts were most vulnerable to droughts. This study’s comparative assessment of SPI, SPEI, and RDI highlights that SPI is highly effective for detecting short-term agricultural droughts, while SPEI provides a more detailed perspective on long-term climatic variability. RDI, which integrates precipitation and evapotranspiration, is particularly useful for assessing hydrological drought impacts in semi-arid regions. The study underscores the importance of selecting appropriate drought timescales, where SPI-3 is optimal for agricultural droughts, while SPI-6 and SPI-12 provide insights into hydrological and meteorological droughts, respectively. The findings of this research offer innovative insights for enhancing drought monitoring systems, developing targeted drought management strategies, optimizing irrigation planning, and promoting drought-resilient agricultural practices. The study contributes to bridging the gap in drought assessment by presenting an integrated, multi-index framework, which can be applied to other semi-arid regions for improving drought preparedness and agricultural sustainability.</p>

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Multiscale drought assessment with analyzing agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological impacts multi-index approaches (1991–2021)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月7日

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  • Mingwu Zhou,
  • Muhammad Haseeb,
  • Zainab Tahir,
  • Syed Amer Mahmood,
  • Hania Arif,
  • M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud,
  • Aqil Tariq

摘要

The increasing frequency of droughts as global temperatures rise requires the development of precise and reliable criteria for drought evaluation. This research used three standard drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) to assess drought conditions in five districts of Punjab, Pakistan, from 1991 to 2021. A key innovation of this research is the integration of multiple timescales (3-, 6-, and 12-months) to analyze agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological droughts, providing a more comprehensive drought assessment. The RDI calculation noticed that all districts experienced moderate to extreme droughts, with values ranging from -1.0 to -2.5. Moderate to severe droughts happened in all districts, with critical drought years including 1993, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2018, and 2021 resulting in considerable wheat production decreases of 2.74 tons/ha. Based on 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescale estimations for SPI and SPEI, the research indicated major droughts occurred in 1991, 1993, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2016, 2018, and 2021, which were consistent throughout all five districts of Punjab. The study indicated that the Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan districts were most vulnerable to droughts. This study’s comparative assessment of SPI, SPEI, and RDI highlights that SPI is highly effective for detecting short-term agricultural droughts, while SPEI provides a more detailed perspective on long-term climatic variability. RDI, which integrates precipitation and evapotranspiration, is particularly useful for assessing hydrological drought impacts in semi-arid regions. The study underscores the importance of selecting appropriate drought timescales, where SPI-3 is optimal for agricultural droughts, while SPI-6 and SPI-12 provide insights into hydrological and meteorological droughts, respectively. The findings of this research offer innovative insights for enhancing drought monitoring systems, developing targeted drought management strategies, optimizing irrigation planning, and promoting drought-resilient agricultural practices. The study contributes to bridging the gap in drought assessment by presenting an integrated, multi-index framework, which can be applied to other semi-arid regions for improving drought preparedness and agricultural sustainability.