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<p>Environmental management, particularly in ecologically vulnerable areas sensitive to climate change, such as Northern China, depends crucially on understanding the mechanisms governing changes in vegetation greening. However, the extent of climate change and human activity’s impact on vegetation change remains unclear, hindering effective management for environmental sustainability. In this study, we characterized spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation from 1982 to 2022 using the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (<i>kNDVI</i>), and quantified the relative contributions of climate change and human activity to vegetation changes. Results showed that <i>kNDVI</i> increased at 0.008/10 a from 1982 to 2022, with a notably accelerated rise after 2000. Human activities. dominated the <i>kNDVI</i> variations area accounting for 52.45%, while climate change 47.55%, indicating the dominant role of human activities in driving vegetation growth. The increase in <i>kNDVI</i> was promoted primarily by changes in temperature and precipitation, with precipitation being the dominant factor. Land-use changes, including ecological restoration and agricultural expansion, as well as improved land management strategies, significantly contributed to vegetation recovery. Notably, ecological restoration projects proved to be the most effective human intervention in enhancing vegetation growth. These findings provide critical scientific insights to support ecological restoration planning, optimize land-use strategies, and promote sustainable vegetation management in Northern China in the context of ongoing climate change.</p>

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Quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation in ecologically fragile regions: a case study of Northern China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月25日

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  • Xiangzhou Dou,
  • Xiumei Li,
  • Guoqing Sang,
  • Ping Yang,
  • Yuhu Zhang,
  • Jianing Wang,
  • Zhicheng Zhong,
  • Feng Lin,
  • Qiang Zhao

摘要

Environmental management, particularly in ecologically vulnerable areas sensitive to climate change, such as Northern China, depends crucially on understanding the mechanisms governing changes in vegetation greening. However, the extent of climate change and human activity’s impact on vegetation change remains unclear, hindering effective management for environmental sustainability. In this study, we characterized spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation from 1982 to 2022 using the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), and quantified the relative contributions of climate change and human activity to vegetation changes. Results showed that kNDVI increased at 0.008/10 a from 1982 to 2022, with a notably accelerated rise after 2000. Human activities. dominated the kNDVI variations area accounting for 52.45%, while climate change 47.55%, indicating the dominant role of human activities in driving vegetation growth. The increase in kNDVI was promoted primarily by changes in temperature and precipitation, with precipitation being the dominant factor. Land-use changes, including ecological restoration and agricultural expansion, as well as improved land management strategies, significantly contributed to vegetation recovery. Notably, ecological restoration projects proved to be the most effective human intervention in enhancing vegetation growth. These findings provide critical scientific insights to support ecological restoration planning, optimize land-use strategies, and promote sustainable vegetation management in Northern China in the context of ongoing climate change.