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<p>Assessment of drought characteristics is valuable for water resources managers and policymakers to develop policies for drought mitigation and management. In this study, a copula-based joint deficit index (JDI) was used to analyze the drought characteristics in the Jhelum River basin in Kashmir Valley. JDI was calculated for seven meteorological stations and the entire basin. Monthly precipitation data from 1980 to 2019 was used for the study. JDI uses a 12-dimensional empirical copula to encompass multiple deficit statuses that scale from 1 to 12&#xa0;months over time. The lowest JDI value for the basin was -2.9, which was observed in January 2001. JDI was found to provide an extensive and precise assessment of droughts compared to the modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod). Additionally, it was demonstrated that the JDI could capture both upcoming and presistent droughts. Drought evaluation across the Jhelum River basin showed that droughts have been more frequent in the last two decades (2000–2019), and the severity was more in the southern part of the basin. Droughts during spring were more frequent and severe. The results obtained show the superiority of the JDI for assessing drought characteristics for different regions of the Jhelum basin.</p>

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Drought severity index analysis using the copula-based joint deficit index in greater Himalayas of India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月28日

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  • Sabah Parvaze,
  • Rohitashw Kumar,
  • Rasoul Mirabbasi,
  • Saqib Parvaze Allaie

摘要

Assessment of drought characteristics is valuable for water resources managers and policymakers to develop policies for drought mitigation and management. In this study, a copula-based joint deficit index (JDI) was used to analyze the drought characteristics in the Jhelum River basin in Kashmir Valley. JDI was calculated for seven meteorological stations and the entire basin. Monthly precipitation data from 1980 to 2019 was used for the study. JDI uses a 12-dimensional empirical copula to encompass multiple deficit statuses that scale from 1 to 12 months over time. The lowest JDI value for the basin was -2.9, which was observed in January 2001. JDI was found to provide an extensive and precise assessment of droughts compared to the modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod). Additionally, it was demonstrated that the JDI could capture both upcoming and presistent droughts. Drought evaluation across the Jhelum River basin showed that droughts have been more frequent in the last two decades (2000–2019), and the severity was more in the southern part of the basin. Droughts during spring were more frequent and severe. The results obtained show the superiority of the JDI for assessing drought characteristics for different regions of the Jhelum basin.