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<p>Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is largely rainfed and managed by smallholder farmers. We assessed and projected the impact of climate change on Ghana’s agriculture using cassava production as exemplar. We first used a mixed-research method which included 15 participants from 8 communities in a focus group discussion and a purposive sampling of 254 cassava farmers to assess their perception of climate change and its impact on yield. In addition, annual crop data from 1993 to 2020, agroclimatology data from NASA Power and WorldClim was used to predict the near (2021–2040) and far (2081–2100) climate scenarios. The result showed that yield among farmers were significantly influenced by years of farming (<i>P</i> = 0.002), sex (<i>P</i> = 0.001) and source of labour (<i>P</i> = 0.003). Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis revealed that climatic factors accounted for 19.4% and 10.2% of the variations in cassava production and yields respectively. In addition, the model predicted an increase of 0.1&#xa0;°C to 0.2&#xa0;°C in maximum temperature under SSP5 in the near future and a significant increase of 1&#xa0;°C and 3&#xa0;°C under SSP2 and SSP5 respectively in the far future. Minimum temperatures are projected to show similar pattern under SSP2 (1&#xa0;°C) and SSP5 (3.2&#xa0;°C) and a decline in precipitation is expected under both future scenarios. In conclusion, future crops production will experience higher climate vulnerability, especially with only 2% of Ghana’s arable land under irrigation. Therefore, investing in climate education and long-term adaptation strategies could provide a precondition for farmers ability to adapt to the unavoidable impact of climate change.</p>

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Assessment and projection of climate change impact on Ghana’s agricultural crops: evidence from cassava (Manihot esculenta) production in the coastal Savannah agroecological zone

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月11日

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  • Henrietta Andoh,
  • James S. Kaba

摘要

Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is largely rainfed and managed by smallholder farmers. We assessed and projected the impact of climate change on Ghana’s agriculture using cassava production as exemplar. We first used a mixed-research method which included 15 participants from 8 communities in a focus group discussion and a purposive sampling of 254 cassava farmers to assess their perception of climate change and its impact on yield. In addition, annual crop data from 1993 to 2020, agroclimatology data from NASA Power and WorldClim was used to predict the near (2021–2040) and far (2081–2100) climate scenarios. The result showed that yield among farmers were significantly influenced by years of farming (P = 0.002), sex (P = 0.001) and source of labour (P = 0.003). Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis revealed that climatic factors accounted for 19.4% and 10.2% of the variations in cassava production and yields respectively. In addition, the model predicted an increase of 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C in maximum temperature under SSP5 in the near future and a significant increase of 1 °C and 3 °C under SSP2 and SSP5 respectively in the far future. Minimum temperatures are projected to show similar pattern under SSP2 (1 °C) and SSP5 (3.2 °C) and a decline in precipitation is expected under both future scenarios. In conclusion, future crops production will experience higher climate vulnerability, especially with only 2% of Ghana’s arable land under irrigation. Therefore, investing in climate education and long-term adaptation strategies could provide a precondition for farmers ability to adapt to the unavoidable impact of climate change.