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<p>In this study, the influence of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), China on meteorological parameters, including precipitable water vapor (PWV), precipitation, and three types of soil moisture, are first analyzed from 1994 to 2023 in the middle route flowing area. Three statistical methods based on the Generalized additive model (GAM), Theil-Sen trend analysis (TSTA), and Mann-Kendall significance test (MKST) are adopted to investigate the variation of these parameters. GAM and TSTA are mainly used to evaluate the variation trend from the perspective of temporal and spatial, respectively. MKST is used to assess whether the variation is significant. Through the comparative analysis before and after the opening of the SNWDP, as well as the overall period of analysis, three important findings can be concluded: (1) Before the opening of SNWDP, all of the PWV, precipitation, and soil moisture had continuously declined in the past 20 years from 1994 to 2014. The average decrease of PWV and precipitation is approximately 0.04&#xa0;mm and 18.19&#xa0;mm, respectively. Moreover, regarding the three types of soil moisture, the average volumetric water content decreased by 0.17% in the 0–7&#xa0;cm surface layer, 0.21% in the 8–28&#xa0;cm intermediate layer, and 0.29% in the 29–100&#xa0;cm deep layer. (2) After the SNWDP was put into operation, the decreasing trend of these parameters is obviously mitigated from 2015 to 2023. Concretely, the average increase of PWV is approximately 0.09&#xa0;mm from 2015 to 2023, even though there was an extreme drought event in 2019. (3) Based on the results of MKST, it can be found that PWV shows a significant increase at 80% and above confidence levels in 41.73% of the regions from 1994 to 2023. However, it should be noted that although the SNWDP significantly improves precipitation and soil moisture, neither has recovered to the level around 1994.</p>

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Analysis of the influence of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China on meteorological parameters: a case study of the middle route flowing area

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月11日

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  • Tong Yang,
  • Mingkun Su,
  • Wenfei Guo,
  • Yan Chen,
  • Junna Shang,
  • Miao Hu

摘要

In this study, the influence of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), China on meteorological parameters, including precipitable water vapor (PWV), precipitation, and three types of soil moisture, are first analyzed from 1994 to 2023 in the middle route flowing area. Three statistical methods based on the Generalized additive model (GAM), Theil-Sen trend analysis (TSTA), and Mann-Kendall significance test (MKST) are adopted to investigate the variation of these parameters. GAM and TSTA are mainly used to evaluate the variation trend from the perspective of temporal and spatial, respectively. MKST is used to assess whether the variation is significant. Through the comparative analysis before and after the opening of the SNWDP, as well as the overall period of analysis, three important findings can be concluded: (1) Before the opening of SNWDP, all of the PWV, precipitation, and soil moisture had continuously declined in the past 20 years from 1994 to 2014. The average decrease of PWV and precipitation is approximately 0.04 mm and 18.19 mm, respectively. Moreover, regarding the three types of soil moisture, the average volumetric water content decreased by 0.17% in the 0–7 cm surface layer, 0.21% in the 8–28 cm intermediate layer, and 0.29% in the 29–100 cm deep layer. (2) After the SNWDP was put into operation, the decreasing trend of these parameters is obviously mitigated from 2015 to 2023. Concretely, the average increase of PWV is approximately 0.09 mm from 2015 to 2023, even though there was an extreme drought event in 2019. (3) Based on the results of MKST, it can be found that PWV shows a significant increase at 80% and above confidence levels in 41.73% of the regions from 1994 to 2023. However, it should be noted that although the SNWDP significantly improves precipitation and soil moisture, neither has recovered to the level around 1994.