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<p>This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation across Iran and neighboring countries, including (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq). Ten models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were assessed for their performance in simulating historical climate (1980–2014), compared to ERA5 reanalysis data, and ranked using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) index. Weighted outputs from these ranked CMIP6 models were then used to create gridded maps of projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the eight countries. Projections were made for two future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2051–2080), under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios (SSPs): SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. Results indicate that precipitation changes will be uneven, with variations ranging from − 10% to + 30% during the near future, depending on the region and SSPs. The far future will see more pronounced fluctuations, with precipitation changes ranging from − 30% to over + 30%. Temperature increases are projected to range from 1 to 2.2&#xa0;°C in the near future and 1–4&#xa0;°C in the far future, with the highest increases under SSP585. Regions such as southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran are expected to experience relatively smaller temperature increases compared to other areas. Notably, the likelihood of precipitation decreases in Turkey and increases in Pakistan is higher than in other regions. These findings underscore the heterogeneous nature of climate impacts across the study area. Given the uneven effects of climate change across the studied countries, it is essential to adopt collaborative policies for climate change adaptation in these regions.</p>

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Evaluating regional climate change during 2021–2080 for Iran and neighboring countries (a comparative analysis of projections and reanalysis data)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月7日

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  • Hossein Dehban,
  • Mohammad Javad Zareian,
  • Alireza Gohari

摘要

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation across Iran and neighboring countries, including (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq). Ten models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were assessed for their performance in simulating historical climate (1980–2014), compared to ERA5 reanalysis data, and ranked using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) index. Weighted outputs from these ranked CMIP6 models were then used to create gridded maps of projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the eight countries. Projections were made for two future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2051–2080), under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios (SSPs): SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. Results indicate that precipitation changes will be uneven, with variations ranging from − 10% to + 30% during the near future, depending on the region and SSPs. The far future will see more pronounced fluctuations, with precipitation changes ranging from − 30% to over + 30%. Temperature increases are projected to range from 1 to 2.2 °C in the near future and 1–4 °C in the far future, with the highest increases under SSP585. Regions such as southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran are expected to experience relatively smaller temperature increases compared to other areas. Notably, the likelihood of precipitation decreases in Turkey and increases in Pakistan is higher than in other regions. These findings underscore the heterogeneous nature of climate impacts across the study area. Given the uneven effects of climate change across the studied countries, it is essential to adopt collaborative policies for climate change adaptation in these regions.