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<p><i>Vatica lanceaefolia</i>, a critically endangered tree species, is found in Northeast India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. However, there is limited information on the population of the species and its extinction risk is uncertain. Therefore, it is imperative to intervene in conservation efforts by effectively identifying and assessing the present and future habitats of the species to take necessary measures for their protection. This study aims to assess the suitable habitat of <i>V. lanceaefolia</i> considering both present and future scenarios in Northeast India by employing different species distribution modeling (SDM) techniques. An ensemble approach, incorporating five SDMs- Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF), Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is used in this study. Twenty-three independent occurrence points of <i>V. lanceaefolia</i> were used to model its current and future distribution, along with 37 environmental variables including bioclimatic factors, topographical factors, evapotranspiration, and soil data to predict the potential habitat of <i>V. lanceaefolia</i> under both current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) given by global climate model (GCM), HadGEM3-GC31-LL. The evaluation of the ensemble model found to be very good performance based on AUC (0.88) and TSS value (0.65). The findings revealed that 2597.69 km<sup>2</sup> (0.99% of the total geographical area, i.e. 262,184 km<sup>2</sup>) was identified as a highly suitable habitat for the species in the current scenario. According to model projections, the highly suitable area is predicted to decrease by more than 59.00% from 2597.69 km<sup>2</sup> to 1065.14 km<sup>2</sup>, under the SSP245 scenario in the year 2061–2080 in the future climate. The present findings underscore the urgent need for implementing suitable conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the species. To adequately address habitat loss due to deforestation and urban expansion, it is crucial to prioritize habitat restoration, targeted protective measures, and additional species-level ecological research of individual species.</p>

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Assessing current and future potential habitat of Vatica lanceaefolia (Roxb.) Blume, a critically endangered tree species of Northeastern India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月7日

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  • Anubhav Bhuyan,
  • Suhasini Hazarika,
  • Shilpa Baidya,
  • Kuladip Sarma,
  • Bijay Thakur,
  • Amit Prakash,
  • Ashalata Devi

摘要

Vatica lanceaefolia, a critically endangered tree species, is found in Northeast India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. However, there is limited information on the population of the species and its extinction risk is uncertain. Therefore, it is imperative to intervene in conservation efforts by effectively identifying and assessing the present and future habitats of the species to take necessary measures for their protection. This study aims to assess the suitable habitat of V. lanceaefolia considering both present and future scenarios in Northeast India by employing different species distribution modeling (SDM) techniques. An ensemble approach, incorporating five SDMs- Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF), Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is used in this study. Twenty-three independent occurrence points of V. lanceaefolia were used to model its current and future distribution, along with 37 environmental variables including bioclimatic factors, topographical factors, evapotranspiration, and soil data to predict the potential habitat of V. lanceaefolia under both current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) given by global climate model (GCM), HadGEM3-GC31-LL. The evaluation of the ensemble model found to be very good performance based on AUC (0.88) and TSS value (0.65). The findings revealed that 2597.69 km2 (0.99% of the total geographical area, i.e. 262,184 km2) was identified as a highly suitable habitat for the species in the current scenario. According to model projections, the highly suitable area is predicted to decrease by more than 59.00% from 2597.69 km2 to 1065.14 km2, under the SSP245 scenario in the year 2061–2080 in the future climate. The present findings underscore the urgent need for implementing suitable conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the species. To adequately address habitat loss due to deforestation and urban expansion, it is crucial to prioritize habitat restoration, targeted protective measures, and additional species-level ecological research of individual species.