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<p>This study assessed and characterized the near-future extreme temperatures in the Nouhao subbasin, which is a significant agro-sylvo-pastoral potential area in Burkina Faso. The analysis has focused on regional climate models derived from global climate model dynamical downscaling, which better generates finer resolution outputs for local or regional-level studies. The historical data for fifteen (15) regional climate models were obtained from CORDEX-AFR 44 for performance evaluation. The performance of the models was assessed by comparing historical data for the variable’s maximum temperature and minimum temperature with observation data from the Tenkodogo and Fada N’Gourma climate stations located around the Nouhao subbasin. This permitted the selection of the RCA4 model as the best model for reproducing the temperature of the Nouhao subbasin. Nonparametric quantile mapping using empirical quantiles has since been used to reduce biases between observations and the best-performing model. Ten extreme temperature indices were selected for analyzing the output of the best model under the two climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using RClimdex software. The statistical significance of these index trends was determined through the Mann–Kendall test. The major conclusions highlighted at the end of the study are the variability of the indices, with specific trends such as an increase in warm extreme temperature events and a decrease in cold temperature extreme events over time in the Nouhao subbasin.</p>

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Regional climate model and extreme event trend analysis in the Nouhao subbasin, Burkina Faso

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月15日

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  • Wendkuni Ghislain Noba,
  • Lucien Damiba,
  • Ali Doumounia,
  • Inoussa Zongo,
  • François Zougmore

摘要

This study assessed and characterized the near-future extreme temperatures in the Nouhao subbasin, which is a significant agro-sylvo-pastoral potential area in Burkina Faso. The analysis has focused on regional climate models derived from global climate model dynamical downscaling, which better generates finer resolution outputs for local or regional-level studies. The historical data for fifteen (15) regional climate models were obtained from CORDEX-AFR 44 for performance evaluation. The performance of the models was assessed by comparing historical data for the variable’s maximum temperature and minimum temperature with observation data from the Tenkodogo and Fada N’Gourma climate stations located around the Nouhao subbasin. This permitted the selection of the RCA4 model as the best model for reproducing the temperature of the Nouhao subbasin. Nonparametric quantile mapping using empirical quantiles has since been used to reduce biases between observations and the best-performing model. Ten extreme temperature indices were selected for analyzing the output of the best model under the two climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using RClimdex software. The statistical significance of these index trends was determined through the Mann–Kendall test. The major conclusions highlighted at the end of the study are the variability of the indices, with specific trends such as an increase in warm extreme temperature events and a decrease in cold temperature extreme events over time in the Nouhao subbasin.