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<p>This study builds on previous studies and proposes a combined approach for screening and selecting climate simulations for impact studies in the Souss watershed in Morocco. The selection procedure consists of selecting simulations based on predicted changes in means and model performance in reproducing past climate, factoring in the inversion of the two selection steps. Unlike conventional methods that begin with a preselection of simulations based on changes in means, we begin with an initial preselection of simulations based on the skill of the model to simulate the baseline climate. Accordingly, a selection of 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was done to project spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature under two shared socio-economic pathway emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), with changes between 1975 and 2005 and 2080–2100 analyzed. Under SSP2-4.5, projected changes in precipitation by 2100 range from a decrease of -7.52% to an increase of 15.29%. The decrease is more pronounced (-16.27%) under SSP5-8.5, while the increases are less dramatic (6.78%). Temperature is projected to increase in the range of 0.84 to 2.58&#xa0;°C under SSP2-4.5, with more marked increases under SSP5-8.5, ranging from 3.58 to 4.51&#xa0;°C, expected. The most affected communes will be located in the central and southwestern regions of the watershed. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) revealed that the watershed, characterized by incipient drought in the past, will experience mild and moderate drought by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.</p>

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Selection of climate simulations for climate change impact studies: case study of the Souss watershed, Morocco

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月16日

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  • Modeste Meliho,
  • Marco Braun,
  • Abdellatif Khattabi,
  • Collins Ashianga Orlando

摘要

This study builds on previous studies and proposes a combined approach for screening and selecting climate simulations for impact studies in the Souss watershed in Morocco. The selection procedure consists of selecting simulations based on predicted changes in means and model performance in reproducing past climate, factoring in the inversion of the two selection steps. Unlike conventional methods that begin with a preselection of simulations based on changes in means, we begin with an initial preselection of simulations based on the skill of the model to simulate the baseline climate. Accordingly, a selection of 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was done to project spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature under two shared socio-economic pathway emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), with changes between 1975 and 2005 and 2080–2100 analyzed. Under SSP2-4.5, projected changes in precipitation by 2100 range from a decrease of -7.52% to an increase of 15.29%. The decrease is more pronounced (-16.27%) under SSP5-8.5, while the increases are less dramatic (6.78%). Temperature is projected to increase in the range of 0.84 to 2.58 °C under SSP2-4.5, with more marked increases under SSP5-8.5, ranging from 3.58 to 4.51 °C, expected. The most affected communes will be located in the central and southwestern regions of the watershed. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) revealed that the watershed, characterized by incipient drought in the past, will experience mild and moderate drought by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.