Spatiotemporal analysis of Holiday Climate Index for urban and beach destinations in Greece

The relationship between climate change and tourism is multifaceted, with each influencing the other in various ways. This dynamic poses both challenges and opportunities for the tourism industry. The Mediterranean basin is often referred to as a hotspot for climate change, and Greece, as one of the top Mediterranean summer destinations, faces significant challenges. In this study, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was calculated to assess the climate suitability of urban (HCI urban) and beach (HCI beach) destinations for tourism activities in Greece during the summer. The spatial and temporal trends were examined for the period 1981 to 2023 over Greece. Moreover, the future performance of HCI was examined for all Greek destinations based on three climate scenarios, namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, during the period 2025–2099. Between 1981 and 2023, the most notable decreases in HCI were observed in June, mainly for beach destinations on the Ionian Islands, the South Aegean Islands, and coastal areas south of Thessaloniki. Additionally, significant decreases occurred for urban destinations in West Macedonia, Epirus, and west Thessaly during July and August for the same period. Regarding the future projections, it was detected that under all climate scenarios, the HCI is expected to decline in the future. Consequently, this methodology might be useful for tourism climate adaptation and heat mitigation policies.