Fine-scale analysis of the spatiotemporal variation in high summer temperatures in southern Xinjiang, China, over the past 30 years
摘要
In this work, daily CRA40 (CMA's global atmospheric reanalysis, 0.25° × 0.25°) data released by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 1993–2022 were selected to explore the characteristics of summer average-temperature trends in southern Xinjiang. According to the EOF analysis, the overall temperature has increased over the past 30 years. The boundary line for the shift in EOF values from positive to negative was the region 1500 m above sea level, and the summer temperature changes in the basin and high-elevation areas showed phase inversion characteristics. A 10-year analysis revealed that the warming rate was the fastest from 1993 to 2002, and the tilt rate was 0.1673/10 a. The average temperature was the highest in 2016.The temperature increase for July was the greatest over the past 30 years, with an increase of 0.85 °C. The significance of variance test revealed a significant difference between the average temperature of each month. Compared with that in the previous 10 years, the average temperature increase from 2003 to 2012 was 0.34 °C in the altitude 800–1500 m and 0.37 °C in the altitude < 800 m. The temperature in the high-elevation area above 1500 m had the greatest increase of 0.481 °C from 2013 to 2022.The daily maximum temperature of 49 national meteorological observation stations was used to analyze the variation law of high temperature in southern Xinjiang. The results showed that: In the 10-year analysis, the number of days reaching the high temperature index increased at all meteorological stations. Extreme weather is frequent in the high altitude region. In 2013–2022, the range of extreme high temperature is significantly expanded, the frequency and the intensity are enhanced. The above analysis reveals the trends in temperature increase, high-temperature areas and durations of high-temperature events at different altitudes, particularly showing rapid warming at high altitudes over the past 10 years.These findings suggest that we must pay attention to the occurrence of frequent extreme high-temperature events in southern Xinjiang.