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<p>Climate change is the most important issue affecting many sectors like agricultural production and water resources. Several climatic factors can extremely affect agricultural production in some countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to assess climate trends and the impact of climate change on food production. Climate data were taken from local organizations and general circulation models (GCMs), and wheat production data were collected from the US Department of Agriculture from 1990–2020. Two models were employed to downscale and project the future periodsin the three-time steps (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Climate trends were analyzed by the Mann-Kendal test, and crop water and irrigation requirements were computed by the CROPWAT8.0 model. The impact of climate change on crop production was analyzed by an auto-regression model. The results showed that the trends of air temperature and rainfall are positive and negative for the months of the year, while annual mean temperature and total rainfall showed positive trends during the reference period. Moreover, the findings revealed an increasing trend in temperature and a decreasing trend in rainfall under all scenarios in the projected periods (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s). Due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, crop water and crop irrigation requirements increase in the projected periods as well. Results showed that climate change by 1&#xa0;°C in mean temperatures and -1% in rainfall will decline crop production by about 3.56% and 3.05%, respectively, up to 2100. </p>

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Assessing climatic variation, vulnerable factors, and reduction of wheat crop production in response to climate change in Afghanistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月10日

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  • Homayoon Raoufi

摘要

Climate change is the most important issue affecting many sectors like agricultural production and water resources. Several climatic factors can extremely affect agricultural production in some countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to assess climate trends and the impact of climate change on food production. Climate data were taken from local organizations and general circulation models (GCMs), and wheat production data were collected from the US Department of Agriculture from 1990–2020. Two models were employed to downscale and project the future periodsin the three-time steps (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Climate trends were analyzed by the Mann-Kendal test, and crop water and irrigation requirements were computed by the CROPWAT8.0 model. The impact of climate change on crop production was analyzed by an auto-regression model. The results showed that the trends of air temperature and rainfall are positive and negative for the months of the year, while annual mean temperature and total rainfall showed positive trends during the reference period. Moreover, the findings revealed an increasing trend in temperature and a decreasing trend in rainfall under all scenarios in the projected periods (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s). Due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, crop water and crop irrigation requirements increase in the projected periods as well. Results showed that climate change by 1 °C in mean temperatures and -1% in rainfall will decline crop production by about 3.56% and 3.05%, respectively, up to 2100.