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<p>Habitat and food security in Northeastern China (NC) have been seriously threatened by extremely dry and hot weather. In this study, meteorological data from 108 weather stations, spanning from 1961 to 2020, were used to analyze Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) in NC. A three-dimensional Copula model, incorporating daily maximum temperature, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and duration, was developed to assess the risk of CDHEs. The results showed that the frequency, intensity, and duration of CDHEs exhibited an increasing trend from 1961 to 2020 due to global warming, with the most significant rise occurring with frequency. This was characterized by a higher frequency of occurrence, extended durations, and relatively small changes in intensity. The increasing trend was most pronounced in climate zones IICTb-c2, IIBTb-c, IICTb-c1, and IATa. Spatially, the frequency and duration of CDHEs increased at a faster rate, while the intensity changed more gradually. The spatial distribution demonstrated a decreasing trend from the central regions to the east and west. The center of gravity for CDHEs risk was located in the northwestern part of Jilin Province, with an east-west shift observed over 60 years. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the IIATc-d, IIBTd, IICTb-c2, and IIDTd-e climate zones. The study of CDHEs in NC can provide theoretical basis for protecting food security and the health of human environment.</p>

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Spatial-temporal characteristics and hazard analysis of compound dry and hot events in Northeast China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月8日

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  • Ying Li,
  • Jihao Liang,
  • Ziying Liu,
  • Xiaoxue Ma,
  • Xueling Zhang,
  • Meiqi Zhu

摘要

Habitat and food security in Northeastern China (NC) have been seriously threatened by extremely dry and hot weather. In this study, meteorological data from 108 weather stations, spanning from 1961 to 2020, were used to analyze Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) in NC. A three-dimensional Copula model, incorporating daily maximum temperature, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and duration, was developed to assess the risk of CDHEs. The results showed that the frequency, intensity, and duration of CDHEs exhibited an increasing trend from 1961 to 2020 due to global warming, with the most significant rise occurring with frequency. This was characterized by a higher frequency of occurrence, extended durations, and relatively small changes in intensity. The increasing trend was most pronounced in climate zones IICTb-c2, IIBTb-c, IICTb-c1, and IATa. Spatially, the frequency and duration of CDHEs increased at a faster rate, while the intensity changed more gradually. The spatial distribution demonstrated a decreasing trend from the central regions to the east and west. The center of gravity for CDHEs risk was located in the northwestern part of Jilin Province, with an east-west shift observed over 60 years. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the IIATc-d, IIBTd, IICTb-c2, and IIDTd-e climate zones. The study of CDHEs in NC can provide theoretical basis for protecting food security and the health of human environment.