Exploring climate change adaptation options from climate analogues sites for wheat production in the Atsbi district Northern Ethiopia

Global concerns about climate change affect every individual, family, and society. Most farm households are especially vulnerable to the consequences of climate change because agriculture is their principal source of income. For this reason, it is important to evaluate how climate change is affecting agricultural output in order to put effective adaptation measures in place. For this purpose, we employ climate analogue approach which is a promising adaptation tool that can be applied in practice, and offers a simple alternative using Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFs), and Hallegatte backward methods throughout Ethiopia. The analysis is based on downscaled future (2040–2069 and 2070–2099) rainfall and temperature through an ensemble of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5. Point-based future climate data are generated using the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) climate scenario generation tool coded in R software, and trends are analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. Projected annual rainfall is expected to decrease in the study area during 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 under RCP 4.5 while it is expected to increase during 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the baseline period (1980–2009). In the RCP 4.5, warming ranges between 2.26 °C and 3.01 °C. In RCP 8.5, ranges between 3.11^oC to 5.10^oC. The study identified several analogues sites with five candidate sites at high correlation (P < 0.05) with the reference site, aiming to aid in climate change adaptation for sustainable wheat production.