Impact of climate change on the potential allocation of resources of rice cultivation in Yangtze-Huai Rivers region: a case study of Anhui Province, China

The Yangtze-Huai Rivers region is one of the primary rice cultivation areas, and this study focuses on analyzing the spatiotemporal variations of climate resources and their impact on agricultural parameters. On the timescale from 1970 to 2020, a total of 33 representative meteorological stations were selected in this region. The impact of climate change on rice climate resources was explored using methods such as climatic tendency rate analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet analysis. The results showed that from 1970 to 2020, the Yangtze-Huai Rivers region saw an overall upward trend in climate resources affecting rice cultivation, with significant variations in rainfall, ETo values, AAT10, and safe production days. Global warming's increase in thermal resources may delay rice's safe full heading stage, with mountainous regions like the Jin-zhai Mountains showing an accelerated progression compared to northern areas. And the study observes a south-to-north decrease in safe production days and annual accumulated temperatures, highlighting the south's advantageous position for rice cultivation, despite the southwestern region not showing significant advantages over the north. There's a significant disparity in the photosynthetic production potential, temperature production potential, and the climate production potential values between southern and northern areas, emphasizing the need for region-specific cultivation strategies that consider local climatic and topographical conditions. Overall, this research elucidates the dynamic effects of climate variations on rice production in the Yangtze-Huai Rivers area, emphasizing the need for adaptive agricultural strategies.