<p>Marine renewable energies can be considered as the world’s largest untapped renewable energy resource. The demand for forecasting power generation at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has been growing to aid in managing the production and storage of the offshore renewable energies. At these timescales, atmospheric circulation is predominantly governed by recurrent weather regimes (WRs). In this study, we investigated the impact of winter WRs on both wind and wave potential energies along the Ibero-Moroccan Atlantic region. An optimal number of 7 WRs based on 500-hPa geopotential height winter anomalies was selected via the Weighted Information Criterion, these regimes were specifically defined to distinguish their respective impacts on wind and wave power generation. Results show that the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with the maximum of the wave and wind power, especially over the Iberian coasts and Bay of Biscay (up to + 100%than the climatological mean) followed by the North Atlantic Blocking regime (about + 50%). In contrast, the occurrence of the Scandinavian Blocking, European Ridge and Zonal Dipole regimes tend to decrease the power generation. The complementary between offshore wind power and wave power is also examined by calculating correlation coefficient. Low correlations between the wave and wind power over the central Atlantic Moroccan coasts promises a better management of the combined wave and wind production by taking advantage of the compensation effect. This study reveals the opportunity of using WRs, which have more skilful forecast, to enhance the predictability and anticipate the management of wind and wave energies at the S2S timescales.</p>

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Impact of weather regimes on wind and wave energy potential: application to the Iberian-Moroccan Atlantic region

  • Fouad Gadouali,
  • Mohamed El hou,
  • Laila Mouakkir,
  • Soumia Mordane,
  • Morad Dalal,
  • Ángel G. Muñoz,
  • Albert Soret

摘要

Marine renewable energies can be considered as the world’s largest untapped renewable energy resource. The demand for forecasting power generation at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has been growing to aid in managing the production and storage of the offshore renewable energies. At these timescales, atmospheric circulation is predominantly governed by recurrent weather regimes (WRs). In this study, we investigated the impact of winter WRs on both wind and wave potential energies along the Ibero-Moroccan Atlantic region. An optimal number of 7 WRs based on 500-hPa geopotential height winter anomalies was selected via the Weighted Information Criterion, these regimes were specifically defined to distinguish their respective impacts on wind and wave power generation. Results show that the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with the maximum of the wave and wind power, especially over the Iberian coasts and Bay of Biscay (up to + 100%than the climatological mean) followed by the North Atlantic Blocking regime (about + 50%). In contrast, the occurrence of the Scandinavian Blocking, European Ridge and Zonal Dipole regimes tend to decrease the power generation. The complementary between offshore wind power and wave power is also examined by calculating correlation coefficient. Low correlations between the wave and wind power over the central Atlantic Moroccan coasts promises a better management of the combined wave and wind production by taking advantage of the compensation effect. This study reveals the opportunity of using WRs, which have more skilful forecast, to enhance the predictability and anticipate the management of wind and wave energies at the S2S timescales.