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<p>Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) and the movement of the monsoon trough across Central India are responsible for the formation of active spells (AS) and break spells (BS) during Indian Southwest Monsoon. An attempt has been made to study the characteristic features of active and break spells such as duration, amplitude, and magnitude of rainfall anomalies simulated by multimodel mean of five best performing Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5) emission scenario, it is estimated that there will be an increase in the occurrence of longer break spells (~ 10 days) which could result in extended dry spell events during the months of July and August. The projected relative change (%) in the occurrence of short active spell (&lt; 7 days) is found to increase by 27% (near-term future, 2021–2040), 33% (mid-term future, 2041–2060), and 60% (long-term future, 2081–2100). Likewise, the occurrence of long break spell (&gt; 7 days) is likely to increase up to 50% (near-term), 62%(mid-term), and 75% (long-term). The contribution of rainfall magnitude due to MISO to the overall Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall is estimated to increase from 4.08 dB (historical) to 6.67 dB (mid-term future) with the rainfall magnitude due to synoptic scale events rising from 3.7 dB to 5.38 dB.</p>

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Features of active and break spells over monsoon core region of india during southwest monsoon simulated by CMIP6 GCMs

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • T. Kesavavarthini,
  • A. Naga Rajesh,
  • C. Venkata Srinivas,
  • A. Sabarinath,
  • Meera M. Nair

摘要

Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) and the movement of the monsoon trough across Central India are responsible for the formation of active spells (AS) and break spells (BS) during Indian Southwest Monsoon. An attempt has been made to study the characteristic features of active and break spells such as duration, amplitude, and magnitude of rainfall anomalies simulated by multimodel mean of five best performing Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5) emission scenario, it is estimated that there will be an increase in the occurrence of longer break spells (~ 10 days) which could result in extended dry spell events during the months of July and August. The projected relative change (%) in the occurrence of short active spell (< 7 days) is found to increase by 27% (near-term future, 2021–2040), 33% (mid-term future, 2041–2060), and 60% (long-term future, 2081–2100). Likewise, the occurrence of long break spell (> 7 days) is likely to increase up to 50% (near-term), 62%(mid-term), and 75% (long-term). The contribution of rainfall magnitude due to MISO to the overall Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall is estimated to increase from 4.08 dB (historical) to 6.67 dB (mid-term future) with the rainfall magnitude due to synoptic scale events rising from 3.7 dB to 5.38 dB.