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<p>Global warming and climate change are often synonyms for the general public and policymakers because an increase in near-surface mean temperature of Earth provides the most apparent signal to our society that our climate is changing. In recent decades extreme climate events have been a major issue worldwide. Extreme climate events have varied during recent decades and will continue to vary worldwide because of the warmer climate. These events are relatively rare and unpredictable but have potentially severe impacts on human life, economy, and the natural ecosystem. Its adverse effects seem to be more pronounced if assessed at a local and regional scale as compared to the global scale. The present study is carried out to assess the efficiency of CORDEX-SA experiments to simulate near-surface temperature (maximum, and minimum) under different Indian Warming Targets (IWTs) for India using the Model Performance Index (MPI). The MPI value of CanESM is 0.91 which represent that it is the best performing experiment among eight experiments. Future projections of Frequency, Intensity, and Duration, and Total Hot days of Concurrent Day-Night Heatwaves (CDN HWs) are projected to increase significantly under different IWTs of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. An assessment is also carried out to determine the uncertainty of the annual frequency of CDN HW through Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. The extreme CDN HW events are projected to increase under both RCPs.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of Indian concurrent day night heatwaves across different warming targets

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Deepak Kumar Prajapat,
  • Mahender Choudhary,
  • Saurabh Singh,
  • Sajid Ullah,
  • Wafa Saleh Alkhuraiji,
  • Mohamed Zhran

摘要

Global warming and climate change are often synonyms for the general public and policymakers because an increase in near-surface mean temperature of Earth provides the most apparent signal to our society that our climate is changing. In recent decades extreme climate events have been a major issue worldwide. Extreme climate events have varied during recent decades and will continue to vary worldwide because of the warmer climate. These events are relatively rare and unpredictable but have potentially severe impacts on human life, economy, and the natural ecosystem. Its adverse effects seem to be more pronounced if assessed at a local and regional scale as compared to the global scale. The present study is carried out to assess the efficiency of CORDEX-SA experiments to simulate near-surface temperature (maximum, and minimum) under different Indian Warming Targets (IWTs) for India using the Model Performance Index (MPI). The MPI value of CanESM is 0.91 which represent that it is the best performing experiment among eight experiments. Future projections of Frequency, Intensity, and Duration, and Total Hot days of Concurrent Day-Night Heatwaves (CDN HWs) are projected to increase significantly under different IWTs of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. An assessment is also carried out to determine the uncertainty of the annual frequency of CDN HW through Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. The extreme CDN HW events are projected to increase under both RCPs.

Graphical abstract