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<p>Water security is severely threatened by climate change in glacier-fed basins, where rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns change streamflow regimes. This study focuses on the Hunza River Basin (HRB), an important tributary of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) that supplies water for agriculture, hydropower, and downstream populations in Pakistan. We used a glacio-hydrological model driven by high-resolution CHELSA reanalysis data and outputs from CMIP6 climate models (MIROC6, GFDL-CM4, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) to evaluate future streamflow under two emission scenarios (SSP2 and SSP5). The calibrated and validated model demonstrated excellent performance (R² &gt; 0.85; NSE &gt; 0.70) in simulating snow- and glacier melt contributions. The results indicate a consistent increase in seasonal and annual temperatures across all models, projected annual warming ranging from 1.75 to 2.98&#xa0;°C and 2.73–4.23&#xa0;°C under SSP2 and SSP5, respectively. Seasonal warming is strongest in summer (JJA), especially in MIROC6 (reaching up to 5.22&#xa0;°C under SSP5), while GFDL shows comparatively lower increases. Precipitation projections show substantial variability, with MIROC6 suggesting increased rainfall in spring, GFDL indicating moderate increases, and IPSL projecting declines during winter. These climatic changes result in a consistent increase in runoff and an earlier onset, with peak flows shifting from July–August to June–July or earlier, corresponding to an advance of approximately 2 to 8 weeks. The key finding of this study is that climate change is expected to significantly alter the timing and seasonality of streamflow, with earlier and more intense spring–summer peak flows and reduced autumn–winter discharge. This seasonal redistribution of water availability poses substantial challenges for water resource management, including increased flood risk during peak seasons and potential water shortages during low-flow periods.</p>

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CMIP6 multi-model projections and glacier-explicit hydrological modelling for seasonal runoff shifts in the Hunza River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Hafsah Batool,
  • Jamal Hassan Ougahi,
  • Amir Ali,
  • Ameer Faisal,
  • Maira Malik,
  • Syed Amer Mahmood,
  • Khadeijah Yahya Faqeih,
  • Somayah Moshrif Alamri,
  • Eman Rafi Alamery,
  • Aqil Tariq

摘要

Water security is severely threatened by climate change in glacier-fed basins, where rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns change streamflow regimes. This study focuses on the Hunza River Basin (HRB), an important tributary of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) that supplies water for agriculture, hydropower, and downstream populations in Pakistan. We used a glacio-hydrological model driven by high-resolution CHELSA reanalysis data and outputs from CMIP6 climate models (MIROC6, GFDL-CM4, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) to evaluate future streamflow under two emission scenarios (SSP2 and SSP5). The calibrated and validated model demonstrated excellent performance (R² > 0.85; NSE > 0.70) in simulating snow- and glacier melt contributions. The results indicate a consistent increase in seasonal and annual temperatures across all models, projected annual warming ranging from 1.75 to 2.98 °C and 2.73–4.23 °C under SSP2 and SSP5, respectively. Seasonal warming is strongest in summer (JJA), especially in MIROC6 (reaching up to 5.22 °C under SSP5), while GFDL shows comparatively lower increases. Precipitation projections show substantial variability, with MIROC6 suggesting increased rainfall in spring, GFDL indicating moderate increases, and IPSL projecting declines during winter. These climatic changes result in a consistent increase in runoff and an earlier onset, with peak flows shifting from July–August to June–July or earlier, corresponding to an advance of approximately 2 to 8 weeks. The key finding of this study is that climate change is expected to significantly alter the timing and seasonality of streamflow, with earlier and more intense spring–summer peak flows and reduced autumn–winter discharge. This seasonal redistribution of water availability poses substantial challenges for water resource management, including increased flood risk during peak seasons and potential water shortages during low-flow periods.