<p>Effective planning and management of rainfall resources requires an understanding of the time interval between their availability and the scaling of long-term rainfall data. This study utilized two complex-based approaches–burstiness and multifractality–to examine the dynamics of rainfall in various climatic zones of Nigeria from 1982 to 2011. The results showed that the time interval between rainfall occurrences across Nigeria stems from Poisson processes. It was also observed that the bursty nature of intervals between rainfall decreases with increasing rainfall threshold. Using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, rainfall in the Savannah and Sahel regions was found to have more complex structures compared to locations along the Guinea coast. The multifractal analysis revealed the solar cycle’s role in rainfall dynamics across the country. Both Burstiness and multifractal analysis agreed that there is short-term memory in Nigerian rainfall dynamics. It is recommended that adaptive reservoirs with the capacity to meet unexpected needs be developed for the region.</p>

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Burstiness and multifractal analysis of rainfall across different climatic zones of Nigeria

  • Samuel Ogunjo

摘要

Effective planning and management of rainfall resources requires an understanding of the time interval between their availability and the scaling of long-term rainfall data. This study utilized two complex-based approaches–burstiness and multifractality–to examine the dynamics of rainfall in various climatic zones of Nigeria from 1982 to 2011. The results showed that the time interval between rainfall occurrences across Nigeria stems from Poisson processes. It was also observed that the bursty nature of intervals between rainfall decreases with increasing rainfall threshold. Using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, rainfall in the Savannah and Sahel regions was found to have more complex structures compared to locations along the Guinea coast. The multifractal analysis revealed the solar cycle’s role in rainfall dynamics across the country. Both Burstiness and multifractal analysis agreed that there is short-term memory in Nigerian rainfall dynamics. It is recommended that adaptive reservoirs with the capacity to meet unexpected needs be developed for the region.