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<p>The diverse topography of the Indian region makes it highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events during the summer monsoon season, which spans from June to September and is significantly influenced by atmospheric rivers (ARs). As climate change progresses, the Indian monsoon is expected to carry even more moisture, raising concerns about increased AR frequency. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models aligns closely with historical AR data, indicating critical moisture sources over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal that impact central and southern India. However, northern regions near the Himalayas experience reduced AR activity, likely due to the orographic barrier effect. Between 1955 and 2014, India recorded 490 major AR events, primarily in July and August. The MMEM reproduces the overall spatial pattern of AR frequency, but the magnitudes are notably higher across most of the region, especially over west-central and south peninsular India. The average frequency of ARs is 2.73% for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways1-2.6 (SSP126), 2.76% for SSP245, and slightly decreases to 2.74% for SSP585 over the study region. The contributions of AR-induced precipitation (ARP) and AR-induced heavy precipitation (ARHP) indicate that atmospheric rivers significantly impact India. While analyzing ARP, it was found that climate models tend to overestimate rainfall over the west-central, southern peninsular, and northeastern regions. At the same time, the hilly region shows underestimation. These discrepancies highlight the need for enhanced accuracy in understanding AR dynamics and precipitation patterns. Investigating ARs and rainfall patterns in India addresses key gaps in climate science and disaster resilience.</p>

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Atmospheric rivers and their impact on extreme precipitation during the Southwest monsoon over india: a CMIP6 evaluation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Meera M. Nair,
  • A. Naga Rajesh,
  • A. Sabarinath,
  • T. Kesavavarthini

摘要

The diverse topography of the Indian region makes it highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events during the summer monsoon season, which spans from June to September and is significantly influenced by atmospheric rivers (ARs). As climate change progresses, the Indian monsoon is expected to carry even more moisture, raising concerns about increased AR frequency. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models aligns closely with historical AR data, indicating critical moisture sources over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal that impact central and southern India. However, northern regions near the Himalayas experience reduced AR activity, likely due to the orographic barrier effect. Between 1955 and 2014, India recorded 490 major AR events, primarily in July and August. The MMEM reproduces the overall spatial pattern of AR frequency, but the magnitudes are notably higher across most of the region, especially over west-central and south peninsular India. The average frequency of ARs is 2.73% for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways1-2.6 (SSP126), 2.76% for SSP245, and slightly decreases to 2.74% for SSP585 over the study region. The contributions of AR-induced precipitation (ARP) and AR-induced heavy precipitation (ARHP) indicate that atmospheric rivers significantly impact India. While analyzing ARP, it was found that climate models tend to overestimate rainfall over the west-central, southern peninsular, and northeastern regions. At the same time, the hilly region shows underestimation. These discrepancies highlight the need for enhanced accuracy in understanding AR dynamics and precipitation patterns. Investigating ARs and rainfall patterns in India addresses key gaps in climate science and disaster resilience.