Assessing agricultural drought response to meteorological drought using an enhanced three-dimensional drought framework
摘要
The increasing frequency of droughts under global climate change is a major threat to agricultural production. A thorough understanding of the impact of meteorological drought (MD) on agricultural drought (AD) is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies. As the primary method for assessing MD and AD relationships, the three-dimensional drought framework effectively captures the spatiotemporal continuity of drought events, but most existing matching approaches overlook the cumulative effects of meteorological drought events (MDEs). In this study, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) to represent MD and AD, respectively, in Shandong Province (SD), China. We further refined the three-dimensional framework to better assess the response of AD to MD. The results show that: (1) the improved framework accounts for the cumulative effects of MDEs while ensuring alignment between agricultural drought events (ADEs) and their corresponding MDEs, reinforcing that AD is primarily driven by MD; (2) the severity of ADEs and the migration of drought centers are closely linked to MDEs, with clear geographic similarities; (3) the thresholds for MDEs to trigger mild, moderate, severe, and exceptional ADEs are 114.87