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<p>Rainfall is very critical to the socioeconomic sectors of West Africa countries, including hydro-electric power generation, water resources management, and agricultural activities. Given its crucial role in sustaining food security, meeting the need of about 80% of the population and employing 60% of the total workforce, it is highly important to examine its likely changes under future climate scenarios. This study evaluates projected rainfall extremes across West Africa and its climatic zones using an ensemble mean of 23 high-resolution NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models that outperform it individual models in replicating daily rainfall. Findings show a trend toward wetter conditions in addition to more frequent years exceeding historical rainfall levels under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Intense wet days are projected to reduce slightly in the midterm (2041–2070) but may increase significantly by the end of the century, especially under SSP5-8.5, contributing more substantially to total annual rainfall. The results show clear regional and temporal variations: in the midterm and under SSP2-4.5, slight increases in multi-day rainfall indices are projected along the Guinea Coast, while SSP5-8.5 suggests drying trends in the Savannah and Sahel, with significant declines in CWD and R10mm. By the long term period (2071–2100), intensified wet conditions are expected in the Guinea Coast under SSP5-8.5, raising flood concerns, whereas continued rainfall reductions in the Sahel and Savannah heighten water scarcity risks. These trends emphasize the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that focuses on flood management in coastal areas and sustainable water practices in Sahel zones.</p>

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Projected changes in extreme rainfall events over West Africa and its sub-regions: a multi-scenario climate analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月28日

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  • Oluwaseun W. Ilori,
  • Debo Z. Adeyewa

摘要

Rainfall is very critical to the socioeconomic sectors of West Africa countries, including hydro-electric power generation, water resources management, and agricultural activities. Given its crucial role in sustaining food security, meeting the need of about 80% of the population and employing 60% of the total workforce, it is highly important to examine its likely changes under future climate scenarios. This study evaluates projected rainfall extremes across West Africa and its climatic zones using an ensemble mean of 23 high-resolution NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models that outperform it individual models in replicating daily rainfall. Findings show a trend toward wetter conditions in addition to more frequent years exceeding historical rainfall levels under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Intense wet days are projected to reduce slightly in the midterm (2041–2070) but may increase significantly by the end of the century, especially under SSP5-8.5, contributing more substantially to total annual rainfall. The results show clear regional and temporal variations: in the midterm and under SSP2-4.5, slight increases in multi-day rainfall indices are projected along the Guinea Coast, while SSP5-8.5 suggests drying trends in the Savannah and Sahel, with significant declines in CWD and R10mm. By the long term period (2071–2100), intensified wet conditions are expected in the Guinea Coast under SSP5-8.5, raising flood concerns, whereas continued rainfall reductions in the Sahel and Savannah heighten water scarcity risks. These trends emphasize the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that focuses on flood management in coastal areas and sustainable water practices in Sahel zones.