Scholarlink

<p>The Dragon Storm, which occurred between March 11 and 13, 2020, stands as the most intense cyclonic event in the past two decades, causing widespread torrential rainfall and flash flooding that resulted in over 20 fatalities across northeastern Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula (SiP). This study investigates the meteorological mechanisms behind the storm’s rapid intensification with a focus on a rare tropopause folding event, using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis data, and numerical simulations. Our analysis reveals that, from a synoptic to regional dynamic perspective, the cyclone was notably intensified by a tropopause fold induced by an exceptional downward extension of stratospheric air with high potential vorticity into the lower troposphere, a phenomenon that coupled unexpectedly with the Earth’s surface across northeastern Egypt and the SiP region. Consequently, a typical mid-latitude Mediterranean cyclone evolved into a super-powerful dragon storm. Thermodynamic analysis showed that areas experiencing the highest precipitation (e.g., Cairo) coincided with strong atmospheric instability, characterized by significant water vapor mixing ratios, updrafts and low surface winds, accompanied by a moist, well-mixed troposphere with zero dewpoint depression in the lower atmosphere. These findings provide key insights into the processes driving the dragon storm’s intensification, and emphasize the increasing likelihood of similar events due to climate change.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Exceptionally rare tropopause folding caused the Sinai’s dragon storm: a forensic meteorological analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月13日

查看全文
  • Mohsen Soltani,
  • Christopher G. Fletcher,
  • Abbas Mofidi,
  • Joel Arnault,
  • Patrick Laux,
  • Harald Kunstmann

摘要

The Dragon Storm, which occurred between March 11 and 13, 2020, stands as the most intense cyclonic event in the past two decades, causing widespread torrential rainfall and flash flooding that resulted in over 20 fatalities across northeastern Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula (SiP). This study investigates the meteorological mechanisms behind the storm’s rapid intensification with a focus on a rare tropopause folding event, using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis data, and numerical simulations. Our analysis reveals that, from a synoptic to regional dynamic perspective, the cyclone was notably intensified by a tropopause fold induced by an exceptional downward extension of stratospheric air with high potential vorticity into the lower troposphere, a phenomenon that coupled unexpectedly with the Earth’s surface across northeastern Egypt and the SiP region. Consequently, a typical mid-latitude Mediterranean cyclone evolved into a super-powerful dragon storm. Thermodynamic analysis showed that areas experiencing the highest precipitation (e.g., Cairo) coincided with strong atmospheric instability, characterized by significant water vapor mixing ratios, updrafts and low surface winds, accompanied by a moist, well-mixed troposphere with zero dewpoint depression in the lower atmosphere. These findings provide key insights into the processes driving the dragon storm’s intensification, and emphasize the increasing likelihood of similar events due to climate change.