<p>Abrasive water jet (AWJ) technology has been widely used to cut various materials, including brittle materials, such as rock. The cutting depth is an important index for measuring cutting capacity and cutting efficiency, but it is difficult to establish an accurate prediction model because of factors such as the jet process parameters, characteristic parameters of the abrasive materials, and physical characteristic parameters of the processed materials. In this paper, a theoretical prediction model for rock cutting depth with AWJ technology is established on the basis of energy analysis. The theoretical model contains fewer experimental statistical parameters than other approaches and reflects the influence mechanism of the cutting depth, providing a theoretical basis for the optimization of the cutting process parameters in engineering applications. The energy distribution characteristics of the AWJ cross-section, the crushing removal conditions of the rock, and other factors are considered in the model, and the corresponding parameters are optimally calibrated on the basis of numerical simulations and cutting experiments. The results of the AWJ cutting depth experiment with limestone revealed that the maximum relative error between the cutting depth predicted by the theoretical model and the experimental cutting depth value was 9.50%, and the average relative error was 4.05%, indicating that the theoretical model prediction is relatively accurate. Since the model can predict the cutting depth of abrasive water jets under different cutting conditions, it has important engineering application value.</p>