<p>Disc cutter wear and replacement significantly affect the construction efficiency and safety of hard rock tunnels. Disc cutter wear prediction has become a critical engineering problem. Based on the mechanical analysis, combined with experimental results, referring to numerical simulation analysis, this study developed a new method for predicting the wear evolution process of hard rock disc cutter. In this study, a theoretical equation of the disc cutter wear evolution is presented through the analysis on wear failure mechanism. The laws in the influence of rock joint direction angle and joint spacing on the tunnelling penetration rate are revealed based on the statistical analysis of field data and simulation data. And a new equation is proposed for calculating the contact stress. In addition, the internal relations among the disc cutter motion state, disc cutter load, rock friction performance are analyzed to propose a new equation for calculating relative slip distance. Thus, a new model was established to predict the disc cutter wear evolution, and the model was preliminarily validated using specific projects data collected from Yinsong Tunnel and Yintao Project #9 Tunnel. Owing to the comprehensive consideration of the effects of joint orientation and spacing in the hard rock mass, rock mechanics and performance characteristics, tunnelling parameters of the tunnel boring machine, cutter geometric properties, and cutter spacing on cutter wear evolution, this new model achieves real-time prediction, ensuring universality and accuracy. In further study, the laws in the influence of abnormal wear of disc cutters on TBM tunnelling loads will be analyzed to expand the prediction scope.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>