Associations of muscle mass and strength with new-onset diabetes among middle-aged and older adults: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study (CHARLS)

The associations of muscle mass and strength with new-onset Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remain controversial. We aimed to longitudinally evaluate muscle mass and strength in predicting T2DM among Chinese middle-aged and older adults.

We enrolled 6033 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a cohort survey, between 2011 and 2012. The appendicular skeletal muscle mass (normalized by weight, ASM/BW%), relative hand grip strength (normalized by weight, HGS/BW), and five-repetition chair stand test (5CST). were all categorized into tertiles (lowest, middle, and highest groups) at baseline, respectively. Individuals were followed up until the occurrence of diabetes or the end of CHARLS 2018, whichever happened first. Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and mediation analysis were used.

During follow-up, 815 (13.5%) participants developed T2DM. After adjusting for covariates, lower ASW/BW% was not associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Compared with individuals in the highest tertile of HGS/BW, those in the lowest tertile had 1.296 (95%CI 1.073–1.567) higher risk of diabetes. Compared with individuals in the lowest tertile of 5CST, those in the highest tertile had 1.329 times (95%CI 1.106–1.596) higher risk of diabetes. By subgroup, both the lowest HGS/BW and highest 5CST were risk factors for diabetes among obesity. The mediation analysis revealed that the effect of HGS/BW on the risk of diabetes is mainly mediated by insulin resistance.

Lower muscle strength is associated with an increased risk of diabetes, especially in obese populations.