Association of pro-inflammatory cytokines, adipokines and hepatokine with incident diabetes in India: a nested case–control study within CARRS cohort

To study the association of pro-inflammatory markers with incident diabetes in India.

We did a nested case–control study within the CARRS (Centre for Ardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia) cohort. Of the 5739 diabetes-free individuals at the baseline, 216 participants with incident diabetes and 432 age-, gender- and city-matched controls at 2-year follow-up were included. We measured high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 ( MCP-1), adiponectin, leptin and fetuin-A in the stored baseline blood samples. We did multivariate conditional logistic regression to estimate association of inflammatory markers (as quartiles) and incident diabetes. Covariates were baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and lipids, body mass index (BMI), family history of diabetes, smoking and alcohol use.

Baseline hsCRP and TNF-α were higher, and IL-6 and adiponectin were lower among cases vs. controls. In multivariate conditional logistic regression models, only quartile-3 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.96 [95% CI:1.39, 6.30]) and quartile-4 (OR: 2.58 [95% CI: 1.15, 5.79]) of TNF-α and quartile-4 of MCP-1 (OR: 2.55 [95% CI: 1.06, 6.16]) were positively associated with diabetes after adjusting for baseline FPG and BMI. These associations did not remain after adjusting for family history. High level (quartile-4) of IL-6 was negatively associated with diabetes after adjusting for all factors (OR: 0.18 [95% CI: 0.06, 0.55]).

Higher TNF-α and MCP-1 levels and lower IL-6 were associated with higher risk of developing diabetes. Better understanding and potential methods of addressing these biomarkers, especially in relation to family history, are needed to address diabetes in South Asians.