Conservative treatment of 3- and 4-part proximal humeral fractures: Can poor outcomes be predicted?

3- and 4-part proximal humeral fractures are frequently treated conservatively. This study aims to combine radiographic, and patient reported outcome data to identify factors leading to poor outcomes following conservative treatment.

A retrospective local database analysis identified 3- and 4-part fractures. Radiographic and functional outcomes including Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), QuickDash (QD), Subjective Shoulder Score (SSV) and VAS pain scores were collected.

104 patients were included at mean follow-up of 55 months. Analysis highlighted significant OSS differences in 3- versus 4-part (p = 0.027), dominant arm injury (p = 0.046), age > 65 (p = 0.006), varus coronal neck-shaft angle < 115 versus 115–155 degrees (p = 0.008), posterior head tilt > 155 degrees (p = 0.005), greater tuberosity (GT) displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.01), medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.032). According to QD scores; age > 65 (p = 0.012), varus neck-shaft angle (p = 0.01), GT displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.01), medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.006). SSV varied significantly with 3- versus 4-part fractures (p = 0.005), age > 65 (p = 0.04), varus neck-shaft angle (p = 0.001), posterior head tilt (p = 0.005), GT displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.003), and medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.001).

We highlight risk factors for unfavourable outcomes following conservative management, aiding surgeons in shared decision-making and patient expectation management.