Automatisierung im Personennahverkehr: Eine Delphi-Studie zu den Entwicklungsperspektiven fahrerloser Shuttles

The use of automated shuttles in public transportation promises a more efficient and flexible transport service. As part of the “Shuttle Model Region Upper Franconia” project, the Coburg University of Applied Sciences conducted a Delphi study to investigate the development potential of this automated technology. The aim was to identify factors that would influence the widespread introduction of automated shuttles to derive a picture of the future of automation in public transport. Experts from politics, administration, the transport economy, and the sciences evaluated these factors as part of three survey waves. The results show that the successful integration of automated shuttles into public transport depends on a complex interplay of technical development, social acceptance, and political support. In particular, the aspects of digital infrastructure, vehicle technology, and sensor technology were identified as being critical for the future of automated shuttles. Expectations for the future are still focused on the technology’s capabilities; moreover, interpretations of possible futures are concentrated on technical feasibility and neglect the sociocultural aspects.