The impact of a web-based prognostic calculator on prognostic confidence in outpatient palliative care

Clinicians are often uncertain about their prognostic estimates, which may impede prognostic communication and clinical decision-making. We assessed the impact of a web-based prognostic calculator on physicians’ prognostic confidence.

In this prospective study, palliative care physicians estimated the prognosis of patients with advanced cancer in an outpatient clinic using the temporal, surprise, and probabilistic approaches for 6 m, 3 m, 2 m, 1 m, 2 w, 1 w, and 3 d. They then reviewed information from www.predictsurvival.com, which calculated survival estimates from seven validated prognostic scores, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index, and Palliative Performance Status, and again provided their prognostic estimates after calculator use. The primary outcome was prognostic confidence in temporal CPS (0–10 numeric rating scale, 0 = not confident, 10 = most confident).

Twenty palliative care physicians estimated prognoses for 217 patients. The mean (standard deviation) prognostic confidence significantly increased from 5.59 (1.68) before to 6.94 (1.39) after calculator use (p < 0.001). A significantly greater proportion of physicians reported feeling confident enough in their prognosis to share it with patients (44% vs. 74%, p < 0.001) and formulate care recommendations (80% vs. 94%, p < 0.001) after calculator use. Prognostic accuracy did not differ significantly before or after calculator use, ranging from 55–100%, 29–98%, and 48–100% for the temporal, surprise, and probabilistic approaches, respectively.

This web-based prognostic calculator was associated with increased prognostic confidence and willingness to discuss prognosis. Further research is needed to examine how prognostic tools may augment prognostic discussions and clinical decision-making.