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<p>To investigate the effect of heat days on the frequency of emergency medical service (EMS) missions and its specific effect on certain vulnerable populations and diseases.&#xa0;Analysis with temperature data from 107 weather stations and EMS data from the German federal state of Bavaria between 2018 and 2020 was performed. A generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution was chosen for the analysis and adjusted for regional and temporal confounding. Several models were created to estimate the heat effect and compare the vulnerabilities for the total population and specific subgroups. The outcome of interest was the percent change of EMS missions on heat days. A heat day was defined as a day with temperature ≥ 30&#xa0;°C. The two days following the heat day were defined as lag days.&#xa0;Our analyses show a significant association between heat days and the number of EMS missions. On heat days, 8,5% (CI: 7,4% − 9,6%) more EMS missions occur than on days without high temperatures. EMS mission frequency increases by 3.4% and 1.7% during the two lag days respectively. EMS missions due to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases show a greater increase during high temperatures than EMS missions due to other diseases.&#xa0;Heat days are a major factor for an increase in EMS missions. Increased deployment volumes during periods of heat must be considered when planning the provision of EMS. Climate change could have a greater impact on the provision of emergency medical services than currently anticipated.</p>

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Heat-related vulnerability in Bavaria: implications for emergency medical services during climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月10日

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  • Lea Grümme,
  • Marc Wallner,
  • Doris Gerstner,
  • Veronika Weilnhammer,
  • Moritz Baumgärtner,
  • Katharina Kneißl,
  • Heiko Trentzsch,
  • Andreas Birk,
  • Stephan Prückner,
  • Stefanie Heinze,
  • Caroline Quartucci

摘要

To investigate the effect of heat days on the frequency of emergency medical service (EMS) missions and its specific effect on certain vulnerable populations and diseases. Analysis with temperature data from 107 weather stations and EMS data from the German federal state of Bavaria between 2018 and 2020 was performed. A generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution was chosen for the analysis and adjusted for regional and temporal confounding. Several models were created to estimate the heat effect and compare the vulnerabilities for the total population and specific subgroups. The outcome of interest was the percent change of EMS missions on heat days. A heat day was defined as a day with temperature ≥ 30 °C. The two days following the heat day were defined as lag days. Our analyses show a significant association between heat days and the number of EMS missions. On heat days, 8,5% (CI: 7,4% − 9,6%) more EMS missions occur than on days without high temperatures. EMS mission frequency increases by 3.4% and 1.7% during the two lag days respectively. EMS missions due to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases show a greater increase during high temperatures than EMS missions due to other diseases. Heat days are a major factor for an increase in EMS missions. Increased deployment volumes during periods of heat must be considered when planning the provision of EMS. Climate change could have a greater impact on the provision of emergency medical services than currently anticipated.