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Background <p>The association between ambient temperature and hospitalization for multiple systemic diseases is rarely analyzed.</p> Objective <p>To analyze the association between ambient temperature and hospitalization metrics (admissions, costs, and length of stay) for various systemic diseases and identify temperature-sensitive diseases in the region.</p> Methods <p>Daily hospitalization, temperature, and air pollutant data from Ganzhou City (2018–2019) were collected. Based on ecological time series design, the distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the impact of daily mean temperature on these outcomes, with heat and cold effects quantified using attribution fractions and numbers.</p> Results <p>2,100,966 hospitalizations were collected in Ganzhou City during 2018-2019, with total costs of 13,002.73 million RMB and 15,544.73 thousand hospital days. High and low temperatures significantly increased hospitalization risks, with heat having stronger impacts. Skin diseases showed the highest heat attribution fractions for admissions (58.49%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.24-69.24), costs (56.8%, 95% CI: 32.06-69.75), and length of stay (64%, 95% CI: 46.8-73.67). Respiratory diseases were cold-sensitive, with cold attribution fractions of 31.98% (95% CI: 4.49-52.13) for admissions, 5.99% (95% CI: 4.42-7.37) for costs, and 22.05% (95% CI: -13.63-45.95) for duration. Heat sensitivity was higher in those under 65, while the elderly and young were more cold-sensitive.</p> Conclusions <p>Temperature extremes in Ganzhou increased hospital burdens, with heat being more impactful. Different systemic diseases showed distinct temperature sensitivities. Efforts must be strengthened to prevent and control the risks of sensitive diseases when ambient temperatures change.</p>

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Attribution analysis of ambient temperature on hospitalization burden of multiple system diseases in a subtropical monsoon climate city in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月26日

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  • Yanlu Li,
  • Xubiao Duan,
  • Shichen Wan,
  • Jinyun Zhu,
  • Yanbin Hao

摘要

Background

The association between ambient temperature and hospitalization for multiple systemic diseases is rarely analyzed.

Objective

To analyze the association between ambient temperature and hospitalization metrics (admissions, costs, and length of stay) for various systemic diseases and identify temperature-sensitive diseases in the region.

Methods

Daily hospitalization, temperature, and air pollutant data from Ganzhou City (2018–2019) were collected. Based on ecological time series design, the distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the impact of daily mean temperature on these outcomes, with heat and cold effects quantified using attribution fractions and numbers.

Results

2,100,966 hospitalizations were collected in Ganzhou City during 2018-2019, with total costs of 13,002.73 million RMB and 15,544.73 thousand hospital days. High and low temperatures significantly increased hospitalization risks, with heat having stronger impacts. Skin diseases showed the highest heat attribution fractions for admissions (58.49%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.24-69.24), costs (56.8%, 95% CI: 32.06-69.75), and length of stay (64%, 95% CI: 46.8-73.67). Respiratory diseases were cold-sensitive, with cold attribution fractions of 31.98% (95% CI: 4.49-52.13) for admissions, 5.99% (95% CI: 4.42-7.37) for costs, and 22.05% (95% CI: -13.63-45.95) for duration. Heat sensitivity was higher in those under 65, while the elderly and young were more cold-sensitive.

Conclusions

Temperature extremes in Ganzhou increased hospital burdens, with heat being more impactful. Different systemic diseases showed distinct temperature sensitivities. Efforts must be strengthened to prevent and control the risks of sensitive diseases when ambient temperatures change.