Machine learning-based estimation of evapotranspiration under adaptation conditions: a case study in Heilongjiang Province, China

The prediction of evapotranspiration (ET0) is crucial for agricultural ecosystems, irrigation management, and environmental climate regulation. Traditional methods for predicting ET0 require a variety of meteorological parameters. However, obtaining data for these multiple parameters can be challenging, leading to inaccuracies or inability to predict ET0 using traditional methods. This affects decision-making in critical applications such as agricultural irrigation scheduling and water management, consequently impacting the development of agricultural ecosystems. This issue is particularly pronounced in economically underdeveloped regions. Therefore, this paper proposes a machine learning-based evapotranspiration estimation method adapted to evapotranspiration conditions. Compared to traditional methods, our approach relies less on the variety of meteorological parameters and yields higher prediction accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a ‘region of evapotranspiration adaptability’ division method, which takes into account geographical differences in ET0 prediction. This effectively mitigates the negative impact of anomalies or missing data from individual meteorological stations, making our method more suitable for practical agricultural irrigation and ecosystem water resource management. We validated our approach using meteorological data from 25 stations in Heilongjiang, China. Our results indicate that non-adjacent geographical areas, despite different climatic conditions, can have similar impacts on ET0 prediction. In summary, our method facilitates accurate ET0 prediction, offering new insights for the development of agricultural irrigation and ecosystems, and further contributes to agricultural food supply.