Spatiotemporal variability in human thermal comfort perception in open-air spaces: application to the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The objective of this study was to propose bioclimatic zoning to classify human thermal comfort and discomfort in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil; both historical and future scenarios are considered. Thus, historical series (1961 to 2017) of the effective temperature index as a function of the wind (ETW) were obtained as a function of the monthly average values of the minimum, mean, and maximum dry-bulb air temperatures (t_db,min, t_db,mean, and t_db,max, respectively), in addition to the mean relative humidity ( \({\text{RH}}\) $\text{RH}$ , %) and mean wind speed ( \({\text{V}}\) $\text{V}$ , m s ⁻¹). The data were obtained from 34 weather stations and subjected to trend analysis by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, thus enabling the simulation of future scenarios (for 2028 and 2038). Then, to define the thermal ranges of the bioclimatic zoning, maps of ETW_min, ETW_mean, and ETW_max were created from geostatistical analysis. Overall, the results show warming trends for the upcoming years in Minas Gerais municipalities. All climatic seasons showed an increase in the frequency of new classifications in the upper adjacent classes, which indicates climate warming. Therefore, when considering future scenarios for the autumn and winter seasons, attention should be given to changes in predicted thermal sensation, especially in the Central Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte Metropolitan, South/Southwest Minas, Campo das Vertentes, and Zona da Mata.