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<p>The Northeast Asia winter climate is a nonlinear system replete with changes and fluctuations, jointly driven by multiple factors including Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM), East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), Siberian High (SH), and East Asian Trough (EAT). Traditional studies have predominantly focused on individual factors, neglecting the complex interactions between them and thus amplifying uncertainty in prediction outcomes. Using sequentially locally weighted global linear map algorithm, we examine the state-dependent factors governing the interactions between drivers in the winter climate system over Northeast Asia. Our findings reveal that these interactions vary on interannual and interdecadal scales and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual scales, NAM and EAWM show similar influence patterns on winter surface air temperature (SAT). NAM plays a pivotal role in the EAWM’s decadal influence on SAT through quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. Moreover, EAT exerts a consistently positive influence on SH, with stronger effects during PDO negative phases. During positive PDO phases, SH inhibits EAT intensification, possibly due to active or northward-displaced westerlies. This paper provides a new dynamical perspective for understanding the complex interactions between various factors within the climate system.</p>

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Interaction dynamics in a network of winter climate drivers in Northeast Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月16日

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  • Lvyi Zhang,
  • Yating Lin,
  • Geli Wang,
  • Anastasios A. Tsonis,
  • George Sugihara

摘要

The Northeast Asia winter climate is a nonlinear system replete with changes and fluctuations, jointly driven by multiple factors including Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM), East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), Siberian High (SH), and East Asian Trough (EAT). Traditional studies have predominantly focused on individual factors, neglecting the complex interactions between them and thus amplifying uncertainty in prediction outcomes. Using sequentially locally weighted global linear map algorithm, we examine the state-dependent factors governing the interactions between drivers in the winter climate system over Northeast Asia. Our findings reveal that these interactions vary on interannual and interdecadal scales and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual scales, NAM and EAWM show similar influence patterns on winter surface air temperature (SAT). NAM plays a pivotal role in the EAWM’s decadal influence on SAT through quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. Moreover, EAT exerts a consistently positive influence on SH, with stronger effects during PDO negative phases. During positive PDO phases, SH inhibits EAT intensification, possibly due to active or northward-displaced westerlies. This paper provides a new dynamical perspective for understanding the complex interactions between various factors within the climate system.