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<p>The rising number of extreme climate events in the past few decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, particularly in relation to Sea-Surface Temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of the relationship between increasing global SST and cyclone genesis using linear regression and machine learning models. We extract and curate a dataset of tropical cyclones across selected ocean basins with their associated SST over the past 40 years. We provide correlation analysis using linear regression and visualisation strategies. Our preliminary results show a positive correlation between SST and high wind speed (Category 5 Cyclones) across the South Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific Ocean basins via linear regression and machine learning models. We provide open data with a tutorial for hands-on investigation of the relationship between the genesis and intensity of tropical cyclones. Alongside the time and position of each cyclone, we also provide the related Saffir-Simpson category, season, wind speed, and SST for 15 days before and after the tropical cyclone genesis.</p>

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Machine learning-based correlation analysis of decadal cyclone intensity with sea surface temperature: data and tutorial

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Jingyang Wu,
  • Rohitash Chandra

摘要

The rising number of extreme climate events in the past few decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, particularly in relation to Sea-Surface Temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of the relationship between increasing global SST and cyclone genesis using linear regression and machine learning models. We extract and curate a dataset of tropical cyclones across selected ocean basins with their associated SST over the past 40 years. We provide correlation analysis using linear regression and visualisation strategies. Our preliminary results show a positive correlation between SST and high wind speed (Category 5 Cyclones) across the South Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific Ocean basins via linear regression and machine learning models. We provide open data with a tutorial for hands-on investigation of the relationship between the genesis and intensity of tropical cyclones. Alongside the time and position of each cyclone, we also provide the related Saffir-Simpson category, season, wind speed, and SST for 15 days before and after the tropical cyclone genesis.