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<p>Wind-energy potential in the Middle East is evaluated using integrated probabilistic and economic analyses under future climate change. Historical wind data from the ERA5 reanalysis and future projections from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario are combined to evaluate both the magnitude and reliability of wind power across diverse climatic regions extending to 2100. The integrated framework links climate modeling, wind-to-power conversion, and techno-economic evaluation within a unified probabilistic context. Daily wind speeds are scaled to turbine hub height and transformed into capacity-factor time series to estimate exceedance probabilities and percentile-based indicators that describe the likelihood of meeting operational performance thresholds. Results show that the Gulf of Oman coast and the Arabian interior deserts maintain high reliability, achieving near-daily adequacy for moderate capacity-factor levels, while Mesopotamia and Eastern Mediterranean regions display intermediate reliability and upland plateaus remain marginal. Slight improvements in daily adequacy are projected toward the end of the century, adding roughly ten more high-performance days per year in several regions. The economic analysis confirms that the most reliable zones also yield the strongest net present values, highlighting their strategic role in guiding sustainable, climate-resilient energy planning across the Middle East.</p>

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Probabilistic wind power adequacy and economic viability across middle eastern climate regimes under future climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Mohammad F. Tamimi,
  • Odey Alshboul,
  • Shehadeh,
  • Lina Alhmoud.,
  • Loai Tamimi

摘要

Wind-energy potential in the Middle East is evaluated using integrated probabilistic and economic analyses under future climate change. Historical wind data from the ERA5 reanalysis and future projections from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario are combined to evaluate both the magnitude and reliability of wind power across diverse climatic regions extending to 2100. The integrated framework links climate modeling, wind-to-power conversion, and techno-economic evaluation within a unified probabilistic context. Daily wind speeds are scaled to turbine hub height and transformed into capacity-factor time series to estimate exceedance probabilities and percentile-based indicators that describe the likelihood of meeting operational performance thresholds. Results show that the Gulf of Oman coast and the Arabian interior deserts maintain high reliability, achieving near-daily adequacy for moderate capacity-factor levels, while Mesopotamia and Eastern Mediterranean regions display intermediate reliability and upland plateaus remain marginal. Slight improvements in daily adequacy are projected toward the end of the century, adding roughly ten more high-performance days per year in several regions. The economic analysis confirms that the most reliable zones also yield the strongest net present values, highlighting their strategic role in guiding sustainable, climate-resilient energy planning across the Middle East.