<p>This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the dynamic behavior of atmospheric pollutants in the Caribbean using multifractal analysis techniques. Statistical analyses first revealed a marked decrease in nitrogen oxide concentrations, attributable to the sharp reduction in anthropogenic activity in 2020. However, contrary to global trends reported in numerous studies, PM<sub>10</sub> levels increased during the lockdown period, while ozone concentrations exhibited an unexpected decline. This increase is mainly attributed to the dominance of natural sources such as Saharan dust and marine aerosols, which are largely unaffected by reductions in local anthropogenic activities. Then, the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) highlighted notable changes in nitrogen oxide dynamics. During the reference period (2018-2019), NO exhibited persistent multifractal behavior, while NO<sub>2</sub> was monofractal and persistent. In 2020, under lockdown conditions, NO fluctuations became nearly uncorrelated, and NO<sub>2</sub> developed multifractal characteristics. These results suggest a disruption in emission patterns due to reduced anthropogenic activity. In contrast, ozone and PM<sub>10</sub> did not show significant changes, indicating that their dynamics are less influenced by local emissions. Ozone remained persistent, consistent with its long atmospheric lifetime, and PM<sub>10</sub> showed no clear scaling properties, likely due to dominant natural sources such as sea spray and Saharan dust. Multifractal Analysis based on the Partition Function (MFPF) identified two scale-dependent regimes in nitrogen oxide time series: a medium-scale regime with strong multifractality and a large-scale regime with lower multifractality. At medium scales, changes in the degree and symmetry of multifractality were evident during the lockdown. At large scales, a rightward asymmetry emerged in NO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>x</sub>, reflecting a dominance of low concentrations. These findings underscore the sensitivity of nitrogen oxides to short-term human activity.</p>

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Multifractal analysis of air pollutant dynamics in the Caribbean during the COVID-19 lockdown

  • Thomas Plocoste,
  • Pablo Pavón-Domínguez,
  • Adarsh Sankaran

摘要

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the dynamic behavior of atmospheric pollutants in the Caribbean using multifractal analysis techniques. Statistical analyses first revealed a marked decrease in nitrogen oxide concentrations, attributable to the sharp reduction in anthropogenic activity in 2020. However, contrary to global trends reported in numerous studies, PM10 levels increased during the lockdown period, while ozone concentrations exhibited an unexpected decline. This increase is mainly attributed to the dominance of natural sources such as Saharan dust and marine aerosols, which are largely unaffected by reductions in local anthropogenic activities. Then, the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) highlighted notable changes in nitrogen oxide dynamics. During the reference period (2018-2019), NO exhibited persistent multifractal behavior, while NO2 was monofractal and persistent. In 2020, under lockdown conditions, NO fluctuations became nearly uncorrelated, and NO2 developed multifractal characteristics. These results suggest a disruption in emission patterns due to reduced anthropogenic activity. In contrast, ozone and PM10 did not show significant changes, indicating that their dynamics are less influenced by local emissions. Ozone remained persistent, consistent with its long atmospheric lifetime, and PM10 showed no clear scaling properties, likely due to dominant natural sources such as sea spray and Saharan dust. Multifractal Analysis based on the Partition Function (MFPF) identified two scale-dependent regimes in nitrogen oxide time series: a medium-scale regime with strong multifractality and a large-scale regime with lower multifractality. At medium scales, changes in the degree and symmetry of multifractality were evident during the lockdown. At large scales, a rightward asymmetry emerged in NO2 and NOx, reflecting a dominance of low concentrations. These findings underscore the sensitivity of nitrogen oxides to short-term human activity.