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<p>Drought, a lethal natural phenomenon exacerbated by precipitation deficits, pervades global landscapes. The existing literature lacks detailed analysis and projection of drought characteristics across different drought categories under changing climate conditions. This study investigated drought dynamics by examining its various facets—frequency, duration, severity, intensity, and peak—with a focus on Pakistan, a region characterized by climatic diversity and, therefore, well-suited to addressing existing gaps. Optimal weights were determined for each GCM to develop ensemble climate data by incorporating the method of K-fold cross validation. After the validation of the ensemble data, initial computations of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) span the period 1985–2014 for both observed and ensemble climate datasets for the references period. Evaluation of individual drought attributes was performed for each category (moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional) graphically as well as numerically. While extreme drought occurrences were absent, projections reveal varied shifts in severity and frequency across regions. Notably, southern areas may witness a decline in severe drought instances, in contrast, it may experience an upward trend in exceptional drought occurrences. Drought duration is anticipated to diminish in southern locales, even though exceptions are noted, while central regions may confront prolonged drought spells, particularly of exceptional magnitude. In addition, increased drought severity is foreseen across central regions for all categories. Modest upticks in drought intensity (maximum by 2.77%), particularly evident in moderate drought scenarios, except the northern parts under both SSPs. In contrast, no significant change or decline is projected in drought intensity for exceptional drought under both SSPs. Conversely, peak drought intensification (maximum by 2.98%), may pose challenges across vast stretches of the country. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers steering water resource management, agricultural strategies, and ecosystem resilience efforts amidst evolving climatic dynamics.</p>

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New insights into 21st-century drought characteristics under climate change from CMIP6 multimodel ensemble analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月15日

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  • Firdos Khan

摘要

Drought, a lethal natural phenomenon exacerbated by precipitation deficits, pervades global landscapes. The existing literature lacks detailed analysis and projection of drought characteristics across different drought categories under changing climate conditions. This study investigated drought dynamics by examining its various facets—frequency, duration, severity, intensity, and peak—with a focus on Pakistan, a region characterized by climatic diversity and, therefore, well-suited to addressing existing gaps. Optimal weights were determined for each GCM to develop ensemble climate data by incorporating the method of K-fold cross validation. After the validation of the ensemble data, initial computations of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) span the period 1985–2014 for both observed and ensemble climate datasets for the references period. Evaluation of individual drought attributes was performed for each category (moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional) graphically as well as numerically. While extreme drought occurrences were absent, projections reveal varied shifts in severity and frequency across regions. Notably, southern areas may witness a decline in severe drought instances, in contrast, it may experience an upward trend in exceptional drought occurrences. Drought duration is anticipated to diminish in southern locales, even though exceptions are noted, while central regions may confront prolonged drought spells, particularly of exceptional magnitude. In addition, increased drought severity is foreseen across central regions for all categories. Modest upticks in drought intensity (maximum by 2.77%), particularly evident in moderate drought scenarios, except the northern parts under both SSPs. In contrast, no significant change or decline is projected in drought intensity for exceptional drought under both SSPs. Conversely, peak drought intensification (maximum by 2.98%), may pose challenges across vast stretches of the country. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers steering water resource management, agricultural strategies, and ecosystem resilience efforts amidst evolving climatic dynamics.