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<p>Meteorological droughts are inherently linked with hydrological droughts, but with lag time differences. Exploring the propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts under a multivariate framework is essential, as it will aid in the early warning and mitigation of hydrological droughts. Here, we propose a multivariate framework for assessing drought propagation thresholds across different timescales (e.g., 1 month, 3 months, and 12 months) and various approaches (i.e., correlation analysis, non-linear response, and run theory methods). The meteorological drought (Standardized Precipitation Index) and hydrological drought (Standardized Streamflow Index) were utilized as drought indices at multiple timescales. The estimated propagation thresholds were first compared across multiple timescales using the methods mentioned earlier, and their reasonable differences in the propagation threshold estimates were discussed. Subsequently, we assessed the magnitude and duration of droughts using run theory, followed by the estimation of joint return periods (JRPs) for meteorological and hydrological drought events based on bivariate functions. Results indicated that the drought indices exhibit different propagation threshold estimates at various timescales, as determined by the three methods. This indicates that the propagation threshold corresponds significantly to longer timescales of meteorological and hydrological drought, with average propagation times observed at 0–3 months, 3–6 months, and 0–6 months at monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales, respectively. The reason for the significant changes in the propagation threshold pattern is that it reflects multi-timescale differences in drought indices due to their sensitivity to drought events. The most severe meteorological (hydrological) drought during the 3-month timescale, with a JRPs of between 5 and 25 years, lasted for 20 (25) days, with a magnitude of 20 (12), which further tends to increase with 12-month timescales. Our results suggest robust multivariate propagation techniques for meteorological and hydrological droughts, providing adaptation measures for mitigating drought risk.</p>

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A multivariate framework for assessing propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought across indus river Basins-South Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月29日

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  • Irfan Ullah,
  • Xin-Min Zeng,
  • Sidra Syed,
  • Jiefeng Wu,
  • Xiaoye Yang,
  • Shadab Syed,
  • Ning Wang,
  • Yanping Li

摘要

Meteorological droughts are inherently linked with hydrological droughts, but with lag time differences. Exploring the propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts under a multivariate framework is essential, as it will aid in the early warning and mitigation of hydrological droughts. Here, we propose a multivariate framework for assessing drought propagation thresholds across different timescales (e.g., 1 month, 3 months, and 12 months) and various approaches (i.e., correlation analysis, non-linear response, and run theory methods). The meteorological drought (Standardized Precipitation Index) and hydrological drought (Standardized Streamflow Index) were utilized as drought indices at multiple timescales. The estimated propagation thresholds were first compared across multiple timescales using the methods mentioned earlier, and their reasonable differences in the propagation threshold estimates were discussed. Subsequently, we assessed the magnitude and duration of droughts using run theory, followed by the estimation of joint return periods (JRPs) for meteorological and hydrological drought events based on bivariate functions. Results indicated that the drought indices exhibit different propagation threshold estimates at various timescales, as determined by the three methods. This indicates that the propagation threshold corresponds significantly to longer timescales of meteorological and hydrological drought, with average propagation times observed at 0–3 months, 3–6 months, and 0–6 months at monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales, respectively. The reason for the significant changes in the propagation threshold pattern is that it reflects multi-timescale differences in drought indices due to their sensitivity to drought events. The most severe meteorological (hydrological) drought during the 3-month timescale, with a JRPs of between 5 and 25 years, lasted for 20 (25) days, with a magnitude of 20 (12), which further tends to increase with 12-month timescales. Our results suggest robust multivariate propagation techniques for meteorological and hydrological droughts, providing adaptation measures for mitigating drought risk.