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<p>As the global climate crisis intensifies, understanding the evolution of carbon budgets at fine spatial scales is crucial for developing targeted mitigation strategies. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities, and convergence patterns of carbon budgets across 112 counties in Hunan Province, China, from 2000 to 2020. By employing a combination of spatiotemporal analysis, Dagum Gini coefficients, and LISA spatial autocorrelation, the study reveals a persistent and widening imbalance between carbon emissions and sequestration. The findings indicate that carbon emissions increased by 87.25%, particularly in economically developed regions like the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration, while carbon sequestration decreased by 5%, exacerbating the carbon budget deficit. Although regional disparities in carbon budgets have gradually narrowed (with the Gini coefficient falling from 0.441 to 0.373), the convergence process remains slow and uneven. High-emission clusters continue to dominate eastern Hunan, while western counties, with strong carbon sinks, still face significant ecological conservation pressures. LISA analysis further confirms the presence of significant spatial dependence and path dependency in the evolution of carbon budgets, suggesting that short-term policy interventions may encounter substantial inertia. These findings emphasize the urgent need for differentiated low-carbon policies. Stricter carbon control measures and the adoption of green technologies are essential for high-emission urban clusters, while regions with substantial sequestration potential must enhance ecological protection to strengthen their carbon sink capacity. This study provides a detailed, data-driven perspective on carbon budget dynamics and offers valuable insights for regional carbon management and sustainable development policies in rapidly urbanizing regions.</p>

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Persistent carbon budget imbalance in Hunan, China: spatiotemporal trends and regional disparities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月2日

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  • Qikang Zhong,
  • Yuxin Liu,
  • Zhe Li,
  • Lekai Chen,
  • Chao Yuan

摘要

As the global climate crisis intensifies, understanding the evolution of carbon budgets at fine spatial scales is crucial for developing targeted mitigation strategies. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities, and convergence patterns of carbon budgets across 112 counties in Hunan Province, China, from 2000 to 2020. By employing a combination of spatiotemporal analysis, Dagum Gini coefficients, and LISA spatial autocorrelation, the study reveals a persistent and widening imbalance between carbon emissions and sequestration. The findings indicate that carbon emissions increased by 87.25%, particularly in economically developed regions like the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration, while carbon sequestration decreased by 5%, exacerbating the carbon budget deficit. Although regional disparities in carbon budgets have gradually narrowed (with the Gini coefficient falling from 0.441 to 0.373), the convergence process remains slow and uneven. High-emission clusters continue to dominate eastern Hunan, while western counties, with strong carbon sinks, still face significant ecological conservation pressures. LISA analysis further confirms the presence of significant spatial dependence and path dependency in the evolution of carbon budgets, suggesting that short-term policy interventions may encounter substantial inertia. These findings emphasize the urgent need for differentiated low-carbon policies. Stricter carbon control measures and the adoption of green technologies are essential for high-emission urban clusters, while regions with substantial sequestration potential must enhance ecological protection to strengthen their carbon sink capacity. This study provides a detailed, data-driven perspective on carbon budget dynamics and offers valuable insights for regional carbon management and sustainable development policies in rapidly urbanizing regions.