A parametric framework for evaluating power outage risk trends under changing climatic conditions
摘要
We introduce a parametric framework to assess the evolving risk of weather-related power outages under changing climatic conditions. The developed methodology combines a conceptual fragility model of the underlying power infrastructure, and accounts for shifts in the frequency and intensity of selected driving mechanisms (e.g., intense storms, or heatwaves) over a projected 35-year period (i.e., up to 2057). As a case study, we employ customer power outage records for the Consolidated Edison power distribution grid over New York City, which span from 2015 to 2023, along with downscaled climate model simulations for two Representative Concentration Pathways. The findings reveal reduced average recurrence intervals of storm-driven outages in vulnerable areas, where aging infrastructure and overhead lines increase exposure levels. Power outages induced by summer heatwaves are also projected to intensify, further burdening local communities due to increased electricity demand. The framework effectively captures the foregoing spatial and hazard-specific variations, aligning well with empirical evidence and the scientific literature. Therefore, it could provide an intuitive and practical tool for engineers and decision-makers, toward evaluating power outage risk over the useful life of various projects aiming to enhance community resilience.