Agricultural water cuts will intensify the temperature extremes of 30 provinces in China

Extreme temperature events significantly impact agricultural water, but it is still unclear how changes in agricultural water policies will affect extreme temperature differences. We analyzed the relationship between agricultural water usage and extreme temperature variations across 30 Chinese provinces from 2015 to 2022. Using an innovative grey model approach, we projected temperature variation trends under different agricultural water policy scenarios. Our analysis reveals that moderate increases in agricultural water allocation effectively reduced temperature extremes in most provinces. The impact was particularly pronounced in regions with high grey relation degrees, especially resonant regions where the mitigation effects were the strongest. We found that agricultural water policies have complex, nonlinear effects on temperature variations, with distinct patterns emerging across different provinces. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for regional variations in water use for climate adaptation strategies. Our research provides practical insights for policymakers seeking to balance agricultural sustainability with climate resilience.