Development and validation of a nomogram-based model to predict combined esophageal injury post-esophagoscopy for esophageal foreign bodies

The aim of this study is to create and validate a nomogram model for predicting complications of esophageal injury post-esophagoscopy in patients with esophageal foreign bodies (EFB).

We examined 303 patients who underwent esophagoscopy from January 2019 to December 2022 at a leading hospital in Anhui, known for its expertise in otorhinolaryngology-head and neck surgery. The patients were split into a modeling group and a validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Logistic regression analysis was employed to determine the risk factors for esophageal injury after undergoing esophagoscopy in patients with EFB. Based on these factors, a nomogram risk prediction model was developed and assessed using a goodness of fit test.

Logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of foreign body, failure of gastroscopic retrieval, duration of lodgment, lodgment site, and presence of combined cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were significant (p < 0.05) independent risk factors for esophageal injury following esophagoscopy for EFB. The area under the ROC curve for the training set was 0.850, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test resulted in a p value of 0.908. For the validation set, the area under the ROC curve was 0.848, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test gave a p value of 0.665. The calibration curve showed a close alignment between the predicted and observed values.

The type of foreign body, duration of lodgment, lodgment site, previous failure of gastroscopic retrieval, and history of combined cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are significant risk factors for esophageal injury following EFB esophagoscopy. This model accurately quantifies the risk of esophageal injury after EFB esophagoscopy.