<p>Volcanic hazard assessment has often focused on active volcanoes, while dormant ones, capable of reactivation under changing stress conditions, have received little attention. Therefore, stress analysis is crucial for evaluating eruption potential. Volcanic morphology, in turn, provides key insights into subsurface fractures, stress regimes, and volcano-tectonic processes. Changes in local or regional stress affect volcanic activity and can trigger earthquakes. This study investigates the impact of stress orientation on volcanic activity in the northern section of the western branch of the East African Rift System. Morphometric parameters, including ellipticity, crater diameter, breaching azimuth, and crater alignment, were measured for 231 volcanoes within the Virunga Volcanic Complex and Toro-Ankole Volcanic Field. The results reveal that central rift volcanoes like Nyiragongo and Nyamuragira are actively erupting, possibly driven by WNW–ESE to E–W extensional stress, crustal thinning, or local stress variations from magma intrusion or rift fault interactions. In contrast, volcanoes aligned along NW–SE, E–W, and NE–SW/ENE–WSW trends remain dormant, likely due to failure to open under current stress conditions. Unlike earlier studies that treated tectonic structures and volcanic hazards separately, this research integrates volcanic morphology with tectonic and magmatic controls, providing a novel framework for interpreting paleostress and forecasting eruption potential. The findings underscore that dormant volcanoes can be reactivated under local stress changes, as evidenced by the 1957 eruption of Mount Bisoke. By coupling morphometric analysis with stress field reconstruction, this approach improves vent location prediction, supports hazard map refinement, and offers a transferable methodology for other tectonically active volcanic regions worldwide.</p>

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Decoding paleostress conditions from the morphology of Quaternary volcanic craters along the western branch of the East African Rift System: implications for volcanic hazard assessment

  • Francois Hategekimana,
  • Sambit Prasanajit Naik,
  • Ho-Seok Choi,
  • Yubi Oh,
  • Digne Edmond Rwatangabo Rwabuhungu,
  • Theophile Mugerwa,
  • Young-Seog Kim

摘要

Volcanic hazard assessment has often focused on active volcanoes, while dormant ones, capable of reactivation under changing stress conditions, have received little attention. Therefore, stress analysis is crucial for evaluating eruption potential. Volcanic morphology, in turn, provides key insights into subsurface fractures, stress regimes, and volcano-tectonic processes. Changes in local or regional stress affect volcanic activity and can trigger earthquakes. This study investigates the impact of stress orientation on volcanic activity in the northern section of the western branch of the East African Rift System. Morphometric parameters, including ellipticity, crater diameter, breaching azimuth, and crater alignment, were measured for 231 volcanoes within the Virunga Volcanic Complex and Toro-Ankole Volcanic Field. The results reveal that central rift volcanoes like Nyiragongo and Nyamuragira are actively erupting, possibly driven by WNW–ESE to E–W extensional stress, crustal thinning, or local stress variations from magma intrusion or rift fault interactions. In contrast, volcanoes aligned along NW–SE, E–W, and NE–SW/ENE–WSW trends remain dormant, likely due to failure to open under current stress conditions. Unlike earlier studies that treated tectonic structures and volcanic hazards separately, this research integrates volcanic morphology with tectonic and magmatic controls, providing a novel framework for interpreting paleostress and forecasting eruption potential. The findings underscore that dormant volcanoes can be reactivated under local stress changes, as evidenced by the 1957 eruption of Mount Bisoke. By coupling morphometric analysis with stress field reconstruction, this approach improves vent location prediction, supports hazard map refinement, and offers a transferable methodology for other tectonically active volcanic regions worldwide.