Evaluation of the American College of Surgeons risk calculator in hepatectomy for metastatic colorectal cancer in a Southeast Asian population

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发表日期：

2024年5月4日

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Ye Xin Koh,
Ivan En-Howe Tan,
Yun Zhao,
Hui Min Chong,
Boon Hwee Ang,
Hwee Leong Tan,
Darren Weiquan Chua,
Wei-Liang Loh,
Ek Khoon Tan,
Jin Yao Teo,
Marianne Kit Har Au,
Brian Kim Poh Goh

摘要

Purpose

This study evaluated the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) calculator in predicting outcomes after hepatectomy for colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastasis in a Southeast Asian population.

Methods

Predicted and actual outcomes were compared for 166 patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRC liver metastasis identified between 2017 and 2022, using receiver operating characteristic curves with area under the curve (AUC) and Brier score.

Results

The ACS-NSQIP calculator accurately predicted most postoperative complications (AUC > 0.70), except for surgical site infection (AUC = 0.678, Brier score = 0.045). It also exhibited satisfactory performance for readmission (AUC = 0.818, Brier score = 0.011), reoperation (AUC = 0.945, Brier score = 0.002), and length of stay (LOS, AUC = 0.909). The predicted LOS was close to the actual LOS (5.9 vs. 5.0 days, P = 0.985).

Conclusion

The ACS-NSQIP calculator demonstrated generally accurate predictions for 30-day postoperative outcomes after hepatectomy for CRC liver metastasis in our patient population.