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Background <p>This study aims to elucidate and predict the global disease burden and trends associated with central nervous system (CNS) tumors and cancers among older patients.</p> Methods <p>Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess burden and trends from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the global burden of CNS tumors and cancers in older patients over the next 30&#xa0;years.</p> Results <p>The ASIR among older adults worldwide increased by 3.59 cases per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2021, with an AAPC of 0.86%. The ASPR rose by 9.83 cases per 100,000 people, with an AAPC of 1.57%. The ASDR increased from 10.99 per 100,000 people to 13.01 per 100,000 people. DALYs also rose continuously from 234.21 per 10,000 population to 265.1, with an AAPC of 0.4%. It is anticipated that from 2021 to 2051, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs will exhibit a declining pattern; however, the ASPR will initially experience a slight decrease before gradually rising again.</p> Conclusions <p>The global burden has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicate that over the next 30&#xa0;years, the total number of patients will rise, while the age-standardized rates will show a slow downward trend.</p>

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Global burden of central nervous system tumors and cancers in older adults: the global burden of disease study 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月11日

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  • Peng Liu,
  • Lunxin Liu,
  • Xiaoyin Liu,
  • Gaowei Li,
  • Liangxue Zhou

摘要

Background

This study aims to elucidate and predict the global disease burden and trends associated with central nervous system (CNS) tumors and cancers among older patients.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess burden and trends from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the global burden of CNS tumors and cancers in older patients over the next 30 years.

Results

The ASIR among older adults worldwide increased by 3.59 cases per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2021, with an AAPC of 0.86%. The ASPR rose by 9.83 cases per 100,000 people, with an AAPC of 1.57%. The ASDR increased from 10.99 per 100,000 people to 13.01 per 100,000 people. DALYs also rose continuously from 234.21 per 10,000 population to 265.1, with an AAPC of 0.4%. It is anticipated that from 2021 to 2051, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs will exhibit a declining pattern; however, the ASPR will initially experience a slight decrease before gradually rising again.

Conclusions

The global burden has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicate that over the next 30 years, the total number of patients will rise, while the age-standardized rates will show a slow downward trend.