An assessment of the Henssge method for forensic death time estimation in the early post-mortem interval

Time-since-death (TSD) diagnostics are crucial in forensic medical casework. The compound method by Henssge and Madea, which combines temperature and non-temperature-based techniques, is widely used to estimate TSD. This study aims to validate the predictive ability of this method in a cohort of 76 deceased individuals with known times of death (TOD).

A convenience sample of 76 deceased individuals was examined at the Institute of Legal Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf. The study included individuals who died at the hospital and those with sudden death in public. Exclusion criteria included age under 18, known infection or sepsis, polytrauma, bleeding, and hyperthermia. The TSD interval was calculated using the Deathtime software.

The overall agreement between the actual TOD and the 95% prediction interval for the TSD was 36.8% (95% CI: 26.1 to 48.7). Warm-stored corpses showed a higher agreement (61.9% [95% CI: 38.4 to 81.9]) compared to cold-stored corpses (27.3% [95% CI: 16.1 to 41.0]). Factors such as body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA) were found to influence the odds of agreement. Assuming a plausible range of ambient temperatures between death and admission improved the agreement in cold-stored cases.

The study found low to moderate agreement between the actual TOD and the 95% prediction interval using the Henssge method. Incorporating BMI and BSA could improve the predictive accuracy of TSD estimations. Further research with larger sample sizes and external validation is recommended to refine the model.