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<p>Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are the primary drivers of flood disasters and have become increasingly frequent in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) in recent decades, resulting in substantial economic losses and human casualties. This study investigates abrupt shifts occurred in the trends of six extreme precipitation indicators (EPIs) in recent decades based on observed precipitation. Future spatiotemporal patterns of EPIs are projected using a multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Additionally, the individual and interactive effects of 10 large-scale climate factors on EPEs are quantified using the geographical detector model. The results indicate that: (1) The intensity and frequency of EPEs showed a decreasing trend from 1970 to 2020, but with an abrupt shift occurring in 1996 toward an increasing trend during 1996–2020. (2) The bias corrected MME of CMIP6 GCMs performed well in simulating precipitation over the BTH. A significant increase (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in both the intensity and frequency of EPEs is projected throughout the twenty-first century, with more pronounced EPEs in the eastern coastal region of the BTH. (3) The Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main climate drivers of EPEs in the BTH. Since 1996, the role of the EASM in modulating EPEs has strengthened substantially, and the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on EPEs has become more significant and complex. Interactions among large-scale climate factors exhibit a significant nonlinear amplification effect on EPEs, with the WPSH and EASM playing pivotal roles by linking atmospheric teleconnections and modulating moisture transport. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of EPEs variations, providing a scientific basis for robust risk assessment and effective adaptation planning.</p>

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Increasing extreme precipitation and enhanced large-scale climatic drivers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Dong Wang,
  • Hui Su,
  • Jiahong Liu,
  • Mingyang Wang,
  • Weiwei Shao,
  • Liteng Wang,
  • Qinghua Luan,
  • Jia Wang

摘要

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are the primary drivers of flood disasters and have become increasingly frequent in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) in recent decades, resulting in substantial economic losses and human casualties. This study investigates abrupt shifts occurred in the trends of six extreme precipitation indicators (EPIs) in recent decades based on observed precipitation. Future spatiotemporal patterns of EPIs are projected using a multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Additionally, the individual and interactive effects of 10 large-scale climate factors on EPEs are quantified using the geographical detector model. The results indicate that: (1) The intensity and frequency of EPEs showed a decreasing trend from 1970 to 2020, but with an abrupt shift occurring in 1996 toward an increasing trend during 1996–2020. (2) The bias corrected MME of CMIP6 GCMs performed well in simulating precipitation over the BTH. A significant increase (p < 0.05) in both the intensity and frequency of EPEs is projected throughout the twenty-first century, with more pronounced EPEs in the eastern coastal region of the BTH. (3) The Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main climate drivers of EPEs in the BTH. Since 1996, the role of the EASM in modulating EPEs has strengthened substantially, and the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on EPEs has become more significant and complex. Interactions among large-scale climate factors exhibit a significant nonlinear amplification effect on EPEs, with the WPSH and EASM playing pivotal roles by linking atmospheric teleconnections and modulating moisture transport. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of EPEs variations, providing a scientific basis for robust risk assessment and effective adaptation planning.